Trump’s Turmoil-ridden Track

In keeping with its practice of evaluating a president’s first 100 days at the White House, the American press is all set to announce its verdict two days hence on how Donald Trump has performed so far. As is its wont, the media have already started splashing extensive coverage of the occasion with news, analyses and expert comments in their latest bulletins, talk shows, print editions and digital versions.  “Make America great again” or “Make America fall”? Sweeping financial policies and what his critics call “tariff terror”, called “reciprocal tariff”, are bearing a backlash. It was bound to happen. It has taken some time for most governments to offer their piece of mind. Many of them worked superfast to respond positively to Washington’s impending measures.

China hit back with an 84 per cent tariff. Within days after the retaliatory strike, Trump announced a 90-day pause on the tariff hike amidst criticisms of the “market manipulation” in a century. But he replied with a further hike on Chinese goods, which now stands at 245 per cent for Beijing’s “retaliatory” response. Beijing replied with a new tariff hike that added to a total of 125 per cent. China has stood tough and earned admiring nods from even American allies and Beijing’s traditional detractors, known for faithfully following Washington’s agenda.

Reverse gear

Anti-Trump “hands-off” protest rallies erupted in all 50 states of the US and many European cities covering more than 1,200 locations on April 6. Many economists warn that inflation would explode. In a reverse gear tactics, Trump maintained that he is prepared to negotiate with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Chagrined European Union members are openly talking of the need to seek new trading partners for cooperation. Trump has stopped setting any deadline for a ceasefire in Ukraine. His boast throughout the election campaign was to “finish the war in 24 hours” after returning to the White House. An answer to the complex situation in Ukraine is not as simple as he might have thought. Many trips remain to be exchanged at various levels, and points to thrash out, especially when a superpower is involved in action. 

War diplomacy is a different ball game from the business world of making fat profits, as the American billionaire president might have realised by now. The US is still by far the largest economy with a GDP of $27.5 trillion. China boasts a GDP of $17.7 trillion, ahead of any country, barring the US.   Immigrants are a constant target. Pro-Palestine protesters find their visa revoked. The slightest of error in their visa process invites automatic deportation. Shortly after taking over the Oval Office, Trump desired to annex Greenland, announced plans to “take over” Gaza and started to remove the US from the World Health Organisation. He has also taken steps to either dismantle or drastically shrink the US Agency for International Development, the government’s main overseas aid agency.

A recent survey by the Pew Research Centre indicated that 54 per cent of American people were against the idea of the US taking over the Danish territory of Greenland and the Gaza Strip. Trump proposed to resettle two million Palestinians in neighbouring countries, oblivious of international law. Meanwhile, in an interview with a major broadcaster on the question of his interest in serving a third term at the White House beyond the current one, Trump said: “There are methods which you could do it… I’m not joking.” He would be 82 at the end of his second term in January 2029. If he summons enough energy to a vigorous election campaign in 2028, and the law does not prevent him on the ground that he did not serve two consecutive terms—thanks to Joe Biden who electorally interrupted his stride to a second consecutive innings—it would be a miracle in the American history of presidential polls.

The US Constitution stipulates: “No person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice, and no person who has held the office of president, or acted as president, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected president shall be elected to the office of the president more than once.” Amending the rigid US constitution requires a two-thirds approval from both the Senate and the House of Representatives, together with endorsement from three-quarters of the country’s 50 states. Many legal experts doubt that the Constitution allows more than eight years. Trump loyalists claim a constitutional loophole that the court would have to consider when giving its verdict. Some of them bet on Trump being the running mate of his deputy, JD Vance. If Vance made it, he could quickly step down to allow Vice President Trump to step in. 

Hallowed precedent

George Washington, the first US president, was against more than two terms in office. An exception occurred with Franklin D. Roosevelt. Elected four times in a row, he died three months after being inaugurated in 1945. His extended presidency is attributed to the economic depression and the World War II years. Vice-President Harry Truman completed Roosevelt’s remaining term, and went on to win the 1948 election in a nail-biting finish for a fresh full four-year term in his own right. A year before he quit office in 1952, the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution was made to settle the issue of tenure limitation once and for all. Trump might be many things to many people, but he is not naïve enough to try something virtually impossible. Neither his age at almost 82 to begin a new term in 2028 nor most of his loyal Republican voters might digest the prospect. 

Vance emerges as one of the most visible vice presidents. His penchant for intrusive comments in the presence of Trump and visiting heads of state and government could reduce him to an image of a nuisance rather than presidential material. Apparently, he has begun his campaign for the next Republican ticket.  While age is an insurmountable excess baggage that should not delude Trump to a third term dream, Vance has miles to cover and numerous points to earn for the party ticket and the prized post in 2029. Meanwhile, the on-going blistering tariff war that Trump triggered with typical arrogance places his “Make America Great Again” slogan greatly risks further from achievement. 

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)