Ground Shifts In West Asia

West Asia’s hot spot has been aflame for the last ten days. Breathing fire and brimstone was a normal feature between Israel and Iran for more than 35 years, but how the two plunged into action on June 13 sent shockwaves across West Asia and beyond. Israel’s Operation Rising Lion strikes on Tehran claimed the lives of the target’s top military leaders, professors and nuclear scientists. Iran accused the United States of complicity, describing it as “an Israeli partner in crime”. Within hours, Iran’s Operation True Promise launched drones and missiles on the Israeli capital as part of “severe retaliation” that broke into what was previously believed to be a rock-like fortress. 

A massive volley of drones and hypersonic ballistic missiles rained on Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Haifa, creating havoc, whereas the Israelis struck Iran’s oil wells and refineries. And the war expands in scale and intensity. Counterattacks and more attacks between the countries have created fears of escalation in not only the region but the rest of the world. Israeli assault was hardly any big surprise, whereas Iran’s effective response has proved revealing, even as most countries and agencies, including the legacy media, have stood in stunning silence or hemming and puffing without airing views of substance.

Seismic change

The past ten days are a witness to a seismic change in international perception of Iranian vulnerability and Israeli impregnability. The conflict drastically departed from previous patterns of fighting in the region, involving Israel, whose arsenal of US and UK-supplied weapons has been neutralised. Tel Aviv has had to contend with Houthis from Yemen, Hezbollah from Lebanon and Hamas from Gaza.

Embarrassed and worried, the Benjamin Netanyahu government banned Israelis from sharing visual footage of sites struck by Iranian missiles. Apparently, the damage was far more than the government security forces had anticipated. When Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian disclosed having Israel’s top-secret nuke-related documents and other sensitive information, Tel Aviv admitted having suffered a “major infiltration”.    

In an indication of the grave situation, Israel has had to shift military focus to Iran from Gaza, where it has killed more than 60,000 people, mostly civilians. Already 20 months into the war in Gaza, Israel continues fighting against Hamas and amid charges of genocide. And Iran, whose international profile as a major fighting force has improved, cannot in any way be compared with Palestinian guerrillas in terms of economy, weapons, military and proxies scattered all over the region. If Hamas can hold out for nearly two years against the Israeli defence force, Iran cannot be as easy a prey as its opponents might have thought. 

An average Israeli’s fear of being vulnerable to Tehran’s underground networks in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen is understandable. A prolonged war is prone to expansion and the involvement of more countries. India expressed “concern”; China felt “deeply concerned” over “military adventurism”; and Russia slammed Israel for violating international law and warned that “the Middle East is on the brink of a big war”. 

The Israeli strikes came barely three days ahead of scheduled US-Iran talks in Oman. Tehran now reads it as an effort at eluding it, and hence the reason for its reluctance to bring the US aboard for ceasefire talks. Trump had even demanded Tehran’s “unconditional” surrender before realising that international opinion against such a demand as unrealistic became strong. 

The playbook is familiar. In 2023, Iraq’s President Saddam Hussein was accused of possessing banned weapons of mass destruction and of using poison gas against his own people. Syria’s Bashar al-Assad faced similar charges. Western media have been quoting all sorts of sources for decades that Tehran is only “three months away” from developing a nuclear weapon. Jeremy Corbyn, former Labour leader who has formed a new party represented in British parliament, describes the latest conflict in West Asia as Israel’s “illegal war”, reminding that any “pre-emptive strike is illegal.” If the latest flare-up in West Asia were to witness prolonged escalation, Israel might face sharper criticisms and increased international isolation.

After all, the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s lasted nearly nine years, with Washington’s support for Baghdad. To begin with, Iranian public support for the government’s response to Israeli strikes appears to be spontaneously strong. Millions have poured into the streets of Tehran calling for “retribution”. Trump was reported last week to have given the signal for his army to join the conflict with Iran, against the background of Tehran’s response to Tel Aviv strikes becoming more effective than had been anticipated. 

The US has bombarded Iranian top priority nuclear installations several hundred kilometres away from Tehran. But Washington will think twice before joining the war in a full-fledged manner. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, have given enough hints of not remaining silent bystanders in such a scenario. Europe itself is split over direct American entry into the war.

Filtration 

The US provides nuclear power Israel $3.8 billion in annual military aid, and most countries are now less supportive of “pre-emptive strikes” that serve as a shield for launching a war at will. Iranian army chief last week warned that Israel would be nuked if Iran were nuked. The Ukraine war since February 2022 and Trump’s tariff war in 2025 have turned many things upside down, but not without a big backlash for the US. International opinion is shifting in the wake of big-power hypocrisy getting frequently exposed at a time when a new world order is unfolding. Much of the South seems to be comparing the horrific deaths and destruction in Gaza.

Analysts and critics note that the International Criminal Court in November 2024 issued an arrest warrant against Netanyahu on charges of grave human rights violations. The Israeli prime minister also faces trial in the Israeli court on charges of bribery and fraud since 2020. Israel’s confidence might have shaken up, as its international image as an invincible military force has suffered a significant dent, with visuals going viral, showing twisted steel and destroyed buildings in several of its cities.  Only a meaningful move for talks, which convinces both the belligerents that armed conflict is no answer to their bilateral differences, can prevent further escalation. Russia and China are showing interest in facilitating the talks. Trump, too, contacted Netanyahu and Pezeshkian on Friday. A good omen is that a consensus seems to be inching toward brokering a ceasefire.

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)