Is American Democracy In Peril?

Is liberal democracy in the US placed under threat? This question is raised in several academic platforms in America, Europe and Asia. The liberal democratic platforms in Europe and Asia look more staunch and explicit in pointing out the decline of liberal democracy in the US, whereas the academia flag posts of freedom and democracy in the US itself look relatively tamed and timid. The National Endowment for Democracy (NED), a state department-affiliated and supported agency playing a key role in championing the cause of liberal democracy in the world, faced the threat of closure as its budgetary allocation was halted by the Trump administration. However, the NED budget halt has been lifted recently under the pressure of influential US senators and powerful actors.     

The Journal of Democracy (JoD), which is published quarterly and distributed globally and carries research-based articles focused on various dimensions of liberty and democratic recession, has shirked to include articles that examine the democracy recession in the US under the Trump administration.  It may be due to the impending threat of budget cuts that the government-aided US academics fear to apply scrutiny on the Trump administration. 

Real threat 

Political analysts and scholars, especially in Europe, have been very critical of the Trump administration. They state that Trump and his supporters are posing a real threat to the transatlantic partnership.  According to political scholars, the Trump administration has initiated several processes that could be seen as preconditions for beginning of what seems to be a full-blown regime change. Carl Henrik Knutsen –  professor of political science at the University of Oslo in an article titled “American Democracy is in Danger, but not Dead” discusses the issues related to decline of US  democracy in candid terms stating “In most countries that have transitioned from democracy to authoritarian rule in recent decades, democratically elected incumbents have dismantled democracy from within. They have typically done so gradually over several years, often by chipping away at the pillars of institutions of democracy. 

Professor Knutsen states further, “Democracy in the US is weakened since laws are applied differently depending on whether the violator is an ally of the president or when judges hesitate to rule measures unconstitutional. If bureaucrats in various agencies act according to presidential whim, too, they can contribute to democracy’s erosion, even if elections are still officially held with candidates from different parties. Political scientists Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way — leading experts on "competitive authoritarian regimes” — point out that several key characteristics of authoritarian regimes are already present in the U.S. Several studies find that the rule of law, the absence of corruption, and a neutral, merit-based bureaucracy are linked to the survival of democracy.

The extensive firing and sanctioning of those perceived to have different political views — or those who dare to criticise or act against the president’s instructions — are especially dangerous. This is further reinforced by the placement of loyalists in key positions. The career and well-being depend on pleasing one person — or those close to the president like Elon Musk. This concern extends beyond the risk of “contagion effects” on democracy in other countries. A world with a powerful authoritarian U.S. would almost certainly be a less democratic, more unstable, more violent, and poorer world. 

Professor Knutsen, however, sees that the grounds of optimism for the survival of democracy in the US are alive. There is no reason to lose hope entirely. Democracies are quite resilient, particularly in relatively wealthy countries where democratic institutions have taken root over time. The American democracy fits this description well. If we are to take statistical models that predict the likelihood of democratic collapse seriously based on decades of global data, American democracy should have very good chances of surviving various “stress tests”. There are many potential counterforces against democratic erosion — both within and outside the formal political institutions. 

Challenges

Even a president faces significant challenges in achieving everything he desires, especially when his actions conflict with the U.S. Constitution. Halting a possible decay of American democracy will not happen automatically. It will likely require judges and members of Congress to stand their ground despite expected reprisals. Moreover, key members of the president’s party need to challenge their leader when he oversteps, opposition politicians should effectively communicate the dangers to the broader public. Similarly, civil society should actively defend democratic institutions and the rule of law, security officials and others need to refuse illegal orders, and perhaps, millions of Americans should take to the streets.

And perhaps Trump, alongside Musk and others, has made a strategic mistake by pushing forward too aggressively and on too many fronts at once. Such a bulldozer strategy might provoke significant resistance, even from sympathetic observers within the Republican Party, who may be forced to acknowledge that democracy is under threat. Just like frogs, defenders of democracy react faster when the temperature rises very quickly: when the shift is so abrupt, people may recognise the danger and act before it is too late. But stopping such a shift will still require, according to Professor Knutsen, a major effort which US democratic institutions and democracy defenders will mount not to prevent it from happening.

(The author is presently associated with Policy Research Institute (PRI) as a senior research fellow.  rijalmukti@gmail.com)