Implications Of Fall Of Assad Regime

The fifty-four-year rule of the Assad dynasty collapsed dramatically as the rebels, led by Abut Mohammed al-Jolani of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), marched towards Damascus on December 8, 2024. Historical evidences illustrate that no rule built on violence, repression, and oppression can endure indefinitely, as exemplified by the regimes of Hitler, Mussolini, and Saddam Hussein. These formidable regimes collapsed under the weight of internal and external pressures. The Assad dynasty is no exception, as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, marking the end of one of the Middle East's longest-standing autocratic regimes.

Bashar’s father, Hafez al-Assad, born into a poor Alawite minority family in Syria, began his political career in 1946 as a student leader in the Ba'ath Party. Rising through military ranks, he became an Air Force commander after the Ba'ath Party seized power in 1963. Following a series of coups, Hafez solidified his position as Syria's ruler in 1970, instituting an autocratic regime supported by the Soviet Union. After the death of his elder son Basil in a car accident in 1994, Bashar, then an ophthalmology student in London, returned to Syria to be groomed as his father's successor. 

In 2000, following Hafez’s death, Bashar assumed power, consolidating authority through strategic alliances and military strength. While initially seen as a potential reformer, Bashar reverted to his father's authoritarian playbook, tightening his grip on power through widespread human rights violations, suppressing dissent, and creating a tightly controlled state. HTS, listed by the United Nations and several member states, including the United States, as a terrorist organisation, now stands at the center of power in Damascus. Once affiliated with al-Qaeda, it has stated its intention to maintain current government administrative institutions, including the Army, to ease the complex transition. 

Strategic move

According to U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, his country was in “direct contact” with HTS as part of efforts to locate Austin Tice, a U.S. journalist kidnapped in 2012 in Syria. Blinken expressed cautious optimism about HTS’s recent statements, emphasizing that “what matters is action and sustained action.” Reports indicate that the U.S. had been employing overt and covert means since 2011 to seek Assad’s ouster. According to a Biden administration official, the development represents “a huge strategic move of the needle in the right direction.”

The fall of the Assad dynasty is a “colossal loss” for Iran and a “humiliation” for Russia, while giving considerable leverage to Turkey. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had warned the day before Assad’s fall that it was “inadmissible” for HTS “terrorists” to take power. Russia had “invested billions of dollars to preserve Assad,” creating a frozen conflict in Syria. However, military power has its limitations. Preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, Russia chose not to prop up Assad’s regime further. No external players came to protect the decaying and delegitimized regime. 

Existing pervasive corruption, state brutality, and dire social conditions, compounded by a devastating earthquake in February 2023, exacerbated Syria's fragile state, destroying infrastructure and leaving millions homeless (World Bank, 2023). Following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, regional tensions intensified, and rebel groups escalated their offensives. Israel’s severe blows to Tehran’s proxies — Hamas and Hezbollah — were seen as “a nail in the coffin of the axis of resistance.” A weakened and demoralized Syrian military failed to show up for the fight. These events marked the collapse of the Assad House, with Bashar seeking refuge in Russia.

Syria’s treacherous geographical setting contributes to its instability. Located in Western Asia, it is bordered by Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Israel, and Lebanon, with the Mediterranean Sea to its west. About 70 per cent of its population is Sunni Muslim, but Syria has a multi-faith, multi-tribal demographic, with substantial minorities of other faiths. The Assad clan, Alawite by origin, comprises about 12 per cent of the population. The regime faced opposition from Kurds, Sunni militants, and Turkish-backed forces, each supported by external powers with vested interests. Several rebel factions now seek a share in governing the country, making Syria a hotspot for internal conflicts and regional tensions, posing challenges to national unity and governance.

The Syrian Civil War, which began in 2011 during the Arab Spring, resulted in approximately 500,000 deaths and widespread destruction (United Nations, 2024). The rise of ISIS shifted global priorities, exacerbating Syria’s challenges and making it a focal point of international efforts against terrorism. The conflict also displaced over 6.6 million Syrians internally and 5.5 million externally, creating one of the largest refugee crises of the 21st century (UNHCR, 2024). Despite immense pressures, Russia’s 2015 military intervention through airstrikes and Iran’s support via proxies proved instrumental in bolstering Assad’s regime. The international community, wary of extremist groups filling the power vacuum, adopted a cautious stance.

The fall of Assad House has profound geopolitical implications, reshaping the Middle East’s power dynamics. Although Assad is gone, the road ahead remains uncertain and fraught with complex challenges. Syrian crises have created millions of refugees scattered across Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, and Germany. The question of their honourable and dignified return to their homeland remains a complex issue.

This is a time for reconstruction and reconciliation. Syria will require substantial support from the international community to rebuild its shattered infrastructure, restore its economy, and promote democratic governance. Based on his first term record, President-elect Donald Trump, may prioritize "America First" strategies, potentially reducing U.S. involvement in Syria’s reconstruction while curbing Iran’s influence and strengthening ties with Israel and Gulf states. This could leave a vacuum for other global powers, like China, to increase their influence in the region.

Unwelcome consequences

History demonstrates that regime change, despite high hopes, and the best of intentions often entails unanticipated costs and unwelcome consequences. Addressing problems arising from years of dictatorship requires sustained vigilance, diplomacy, engagement, development assistance, and patience. Afghanistan and Iraq illustrate the costs and consequences of regime changes. The devastation following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, the protracted civil war, the rise of the global jihadist movement, 9/11 terrorist attacks on America, and the 20-year U.S. presence to rebuild Afghan society underscore the complexities and costs.

 When regimes are replaced, political and security vacuums emerge, exacerbating sectarianism and internal rivalries, sometimes leading to demands for secession. External powers often fail to grasp local realities, resulting in higher and far-reaching costs and consequences. Given its challenges of poor governance, and excessive reliance on external powers, Nepal must remain vigilant against any potential manipulations of external forces within its frontiers. 

(Bhattarai, Ph. D., is a faculty member of the Institute of Crisis Management Studies (ICMS), Tribhuvan University. dineshbhattarai@tuicms.edu.np)