New Alliance Poised For Smooth Ride

After losing the plum prime ministerial job, CPN- Maoist Centre supremo Prachanda resorted to his preferred tactic: keeping the new administration, headed by his former ally, KP Sharma Oli, on its toes. To achieve his goals, he has reactivated the Socialist Front, which remained dormant throughout his prime ministerial term since December 2022. After the creation of the new ruling alliance by the Nepali Congress and CPN (UML), Prachanda was nudged to the opposition bench, spurring him to resurrect the almost dead Front.

The Socialist Front was founded around some two years ago, when Congress president Sher Bahadur Deuba had led the government also participated by Prachanda's party and CPN- Unified Socialist when the Oli administration fell following a Supreme Court verdict in July 2021. Despite having an exalted philosophy of creating an equal society through a socialism-oriented economy, the Prachanda-led Front would be best utilised to create troubles to the ruling coalition, political observers argued.

Meanwhile, PM Oli earned more than two-thirds of the vote during the parliamentary floor test on Sunday, indicating that the coalition has the potential to run the country by implementing numerous of its stated policies and programmes. Technically, the new coalition government, which won 188 votes out of 263 parliamentarians present during the floor test, can implement all programmes stated in two parties' seven-point agreement that PM Oli made public in parliament on Sunday. Barring a few pressurising measures, such as House disruption and street protests, the Prachanda-led Front's leaders cannot do much to prevent the alliance from excuting policies.

Hung parliaments

One of the coalition's announced aims is to evaluate and, if necessary, change specific articles and clauses of the constitution so that the parliament is not held hostage by smaller parties. Because certain constitutional provisions have proven to be the root cause of political instability by facilitating hung parliaments, two major parties want to change the clauses related to the mixed electoral system, also known as the proportional representation (PR) system, so that the country does not face hung parliaments in the future.

Although several leaders, civil society members, constitutional experts, and lawyers, along with intellectuals, think positively about the arguments of two big parties, several smaller parties and their leaders see any amendment or deletion of such a constitutional provision as a death knell for them. Many of them have, unsurprisingly, survived because of the requirements of the PR method of election for the HoR, or lower house of parliament, political commentators argued.

Currently, 110 parliamentarians are chosen using the PR system, which permits different smaller parties to send members based on the popular votes they received during periodic general elections. While the larger parties want such clauses addressed and the mechanisms for electing legislators via PR relocated to the National Assembly, the upper chamber of parliament, the smaller parties want them to remain in the lower house.

Soon after his party was pushed to the opposition bench, Prachanda emerged as a vocal critic of the new coalition wanting to amend various constitution Articles and Clauses that, according to him, prevent persons representing marginalised classes such as women, Dalits, backward nationalities, and regions from becoming a lawmaker in the HoR, the lower chamber of parliament that is responsible for creating government and appointing prime ministers. Prachanda cautioned that the proposed revisions will prevent members of the aforementioned classes from becoming future prime ministers.

Many accused Prachanda and leaders of other smaller parties of attempting to exploit such constitutional clauses. The accusation that the PR system, which allows smaller parties to act as manipulative groups, has proven right as Prachanda’s party won only 18 seats through the first-past-the-post system but was able to receive 14 seats through the PR system to take the total to 32 lawmakers. Meanwhile, the Rastriya Swatantra and Rastriya Prajatantra parties gained 13 and 7 PR seats, respectively, giving them a considerable voice in the hung parliament. The Maoist Centre and RSP played important roles in shaping and derailing governments by partnering with bigger parties — the Congress and the UML — that were compelled to seek support from these smaller parties to build governing coalitions because they lacked the majority to establish their own administrations.

Despite Prachanda and the Front supporters' new strategy, the Oli-led government has little reason to be concerned about the Socialist Front and Prachanda. After receiving huge backing from parliamentarians on Sunday, the new coalition is likely to press on with its efforts to examine the charter’s Articles responsible for political instability. However, Congress president Deuba attempted to assuage concerns of opposition parties maintaining that while political instability is the nation's main concern, his party and the government will take all parties into confidence before amending Articles, which will be aimed at “further consolidating federalism, democracy, and inclusivity in our governance system.”

Political stability

Meanwhile, Prachanda and his Front colleagues are concerned that the two major parties' move will reduce their chances of winning as many seats as they would like. Instances indicate that the Maoist Centre has lost considerable vote base in every general election held since the country became a federal republic. Because of this, the desperate Prachanda forged an electoral alliance with the Nepali Congress and won 32 seats in 2022 elections. He had allied with the CPN-UML in the 2017 elections, winning 53 seats.

Finally, Prachanda's objection to the charter modification stems from a desire to be relevant in the next 2027 elections. His party fared successfully to some degree after forming poll alliances with two major political parties. This time, the two parties are less likely to extend their hands to him because of his unstable character, and, instead desire to bring about much-needed political stability, acceleration of development endeavours, and bolstering of the weak economy. However, given a shrill outcry from some communist and regional parties, only time will tell whether the two parties will be successful in their drive to amend constitutional provisions.

(Upadhyay is a former managing editor of this daily)