Is China’s New World Order Emerging?

In its digital edition dated 10th April 2023, The Washington Post ran a headline ‘China’s new world order is taking shape’, alluding to the rush of world’s leaders towards Beijing. The Post said it was a bumper week for diplomacy in Beijing. Recently, heads of state and government from Germany, Spain, Singapore, Malaysia, France and European Union and Brazil visited China, highlighting economic and diplomatic strength of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Some of them sought Xi’s role in ending conflict in Ukraine and fixing economic woes triggered by coronavirus pandemic and global recession.

The Post particularly talked about French President Emmanuel Macron’s call for ‘Europe’s strategic autonomy’ and his warning against becoming a ‘vassal in the service of a bigger power’s agenda’. By saying ‘big power agenda’, the French president was indicating the US, an idea that was greeted with enthusiasm in Beijing that is emphasising for a fair and inclusive international order. In his interview given to Politico and French daily Les Echos, Macron, referring to tension in Taiwan, laid it on the line: Europe should not get “caught up in crises that are not ours.” Macron’s assertive posture has created uproar among the US and its European allies. The Western observers insist that Macron’s call for reducing dependency on the US for defence capabilities drives a wedge between US and Europe, and provides diplomatic ammunition to China and its strategic partner, Russia.

Strategic autonomy 

However, the term ‘strategic autonomy’ is not new in the EU’s lexicon. Its Foreign Affairs Council has been using the concept since 2013 in relation to defence industry. Now it has incorporated economic and technical areas, too. The EU’s literature implies that the demand for ‘strategic autonomy’ also reflects its aspiration to be powerhouse by coming out of the domination of the US that has authored the post-II World War international security, economy and political structures. The EU is gradually losing its relevance on the global scale. Thirty years ago, it represented a quarter of the world’s wealth. It is estimated that in 20 years, it will not represent more than 11 per cent of global GNP, which will be half of China, below 14 per cent of the US and on a par with India.

“Strategic autonomy is, in this perspective, a process of political survival. In such a context, our traditional alliances remain essential. However, they will not be enough,” writes Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Macron voiced for EU’s strategic autonomy and refused to be vassal state of a bigger power at a time when the US-led Western block is facing multiple crises and the world is divided over the Russia-Ukraine war, whose outcome will redraw the international order. A leaked secret document of Pentagon has disclosed that Ukraine’s military will ‘fall well short of Kyiv’s original goals for an anticipated counteroffensive aimed at retaking Russian-occupied areas this spring.’ It questions the West’s claim over Ukraine’s battlefield capacity against Russian military operation. 

The global power is shifting to Asia. The rise of China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Germany has paved the way for the multi-polar world order in which no dominant superpower sets the rules, agendas and narratives. Once a superpower, Russia is trying to carve out its position as a global player despite being economically isolated by the West. Let’s return to the Post’s headline: ‘China’s new world order is taking shape.’ This is an admission of the Western media to China’s ability to reshape the global governance affairs without confronting the West. 

During the last one decade, Chinese President Xi rolled out a number of global initiatives to promote alternative financial, investment, security, diplomatic, cultural and soft power institutions. They include the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), New Development Bank of BRICS, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Global Development Initiative (GDI), Global Security Initiative (GSI) and Global Civilisation Initiative (GCI). Likewise, BOAO Forum for Asia and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation are other regional platforms led by the second largest economy. The BRICS is seen as an alternative power grouping to G7 of advanced Western countries. As multilateral development bank, AIIB seeks to fill the investment gap, providing alternative to the Asian Development Bank and World Bank in international lending.

Balanced development

President Xi had proposed GDI at the 76th session of the UN General Assembly in 2021, urging the international community to accelerate the implementation of sustainable development goals towards a more robust, greener and more balanced global development. The GSI, which was floated at the BOAO Forum in July, last year, indicates China’s ambition to write global security architecture. China states that GSI is based on the principle of ‘indivisible security’ and no country can strengthen its own security at the expense of others. BRI is considered as the largest global infrastructure project with promised investment of over USD 8, 00 billion. However, the US and its allies see it as the Chinese instrument to entrench its economic and political clout in the poor and developing nations through loans and grants.

On the other hand, GCI appears to be a catch-all notion that encompasses a wide range of subjects. China defines it as a way to respect the diversity of civilisations and the common values of humanity while boosting people-to-people exchanges and cooperation. "Xi's initiatives seem to be a counterargument to US president Biden’s autocracy versus democracy narrative, and are more attractive to developing countries than people in Washington might believe," Moritz Rudolf, a research scholar at Yale Law School, told the Financial Times. It will be premature to say that Chinese new world order has already taken root, but it, of course, provides different development model to the countries and pushes for greater reforms in the West-dominated international institutions and governance system.

(The author is Deputy Executive Editor of this daily.)