Changing Demographics

The results of the 2021 census, the first since the adoption of a three-tiered system of governance, have revealed a variety of situations that will aid policymakers and planners in making important decisions in the coming days. The National Statistics Office (NSO) Friday published the census report, presenting some worrying scenarios, such as a decrease in the population growth rate and a fall in the number of children below 14 years of age compared to the population above 15. The latest results, published without the much-awaited cultural data, put the total population of the country at 29,164,578, of which 48.98 per cent are male and 51.02 per cent are female. The population growth rate is 0.29 per cent, compared to a growth rate of 1.35 per cent in 2011 and 2.25 per cent in 2001. The percentage of the population aged below 14 has dropped to 27.83 per cent, compared to 34.91 per cent in the 2011 census, while the share of the population aged 60 and above has risen to 10.12 per cent from 8.13 per cent in 2011. The number of people involved in economic activities stands at 34.7 per cent.

The decline in the number of children can be attributed to low birth rates among working parents living in cities and towns with higher living costs. However, there are many positive aspects to the latest population report, including the growth of the working-age population group to 61.96 per cent in 2021 from 56.96 per cent in 2011. Experts suggest that the decline in the number of dependent children and the increase in working-age people indicate that the country can benefit from a demographic dividend. However, the trend of young Nepalis going abroad as migrant workers could have a negative impact on economic growth. Currently, 2,190,592 Nepalis, most of them are of economically productive age-group, reside abroad. Experts also warn that the increase in the number of elderly people and the decrease in the population of children could lead to economic slump in the future.

The current census report also includes other positive findings, such as an increase in the country's literacy rate to 76.3 per cent, with six out of ten people residing in municipalities (66.17 per cent). More women are taking on leadership roles in their households, as evidenced by the fact that 31.55 per cent of households have female heads. However, despite 92.2 per cent of the population using electricity, 51 per cent still use firewood as cooking fuel. The census also sheds light on changing demographic situations in different regions. The population in the hill and mountain regions has decreased, while the population in the Terai plains has increased. About 53.61 per cent of people reside in the Terai plains, while 40.31 per cent live in the hills and 6.08 per cent in mountainous regions. These imbalances have evoked concerns from Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda as the results had drawn the government’s attention, especially towards growing number of absentee population and inequality between cities and villages and changing demographic dynamics have demanded an intervention in managing migration and reducing inequalities. 

PM Prachanda's concerns are of the utmost importance and merit due attention. An accurate and comprehensive census data can offer the government a solid foundation to create new plans and policies for the federal, provincial and local governments. Such data is essential for a wide range of purposes, from government funding to decision-making, political representation, and more. By understanding the make-up of our society through demographic data, we can gain valuable insights into social and economic conditions that allow us to address issues such as income inequality, educational disparities, health care access, and more. These insights can be used to inform policy decisions aimed at promoting greater equity and social justice in the country.