Stage Set To End Ukraine War

The much-anticipated summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska did not bring an immediate result to end the war in Ukraine but kicked off a process towards that direction. Their talks remained ‘productive’ and ‘constructive’ but their details are yet to be revealed. It is positive that both leaders have come out of the business-as-usual approach to resolve the brutal conflict that erupted out of vested geopolitical interests. 

At a joint press meet, Trump said they had an extremely productive meeting, and many points were agreed and ‘there are just a very few that are left. We have a very good chance of getting there.’ On the other hand, Putin noted that the agreements reached in Alaska "will be the starting point for resolving the Ukraine issue" and improving Russia-US relations. But the Russian leader warned Europe not to “torpedo the nascent progress.” As usual, the Western media and commentators have begun to deride Trump for giving Putin diplomatic mileage to free the latter from ‘international isolation.’ But they often ignore what the Russian side says – the root causes of the conflict must be addressed to establish sustainable peace in Ukraine.    

Future negotiations 

The Western narrative is that Putin scored big but Trump left Alaska empty-handed. However, the summit has set the tone for the upcoming negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. According to them, they will soon meet, likely in Moscow, to resolve the remaining sticking points. Trump hinted that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy will also join them there. On the eve of the summit, Trump had talked about the possibility of territorial concessions on the part of Ukraine to secure a lasting peace. 

Ukraine and its European allies had demanded that they must be included in the crunch talks, but Russia and the US turned down their participation in the summit. Ukraine and its European allies must have felt respite as Trump and Putin did not carve the territories that Russia had won in its 'special military operation.' But barring Zelenskyy from the summit talks has dealt a blow to the West’s policy of “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine”. 

The 'important understanding' Putin mentioned in his speech may be the deal on the 'territorial concessions' that the two sides do not want to make public for fear of disruption of future negotiations. One can draw this conclusion based on Trump's post-summit interview given to Fox News Channel. He said that the onus going forward might be somehow on Zelenskyy “to get it done.”  Russia wants to take back the Russian-speaking territories, where it says the populace is facing linguistic, social and religious repressions and economic marginalisation. 

The summit provided a rare moment for Trump and Putin to renew their old friendship, a scene the American and European establishments do not like. Trump welcomed Putin with a warm handshake at a military base in the Alaskan city of Anchorage. They gripped hands for an extended period and shared a light moment. Putin rode Trump's limo to the summit venue, casting a broad smile from behind the windshields. However, Trump used this friendly moment to showcase the US's aerial strength - screaming B-2s and F-22s were flying overhead. Putin grinned and looked up at the sky, while Trump clapped for the military jets. 

Trump was happy when Putin gave a nod to the former's statement - if he had been president, there would have been no war. Trump often blamed the previous administration for fanning the flames of the Ukraine war. The then US administration forced the expansion of NATO in the neighbourhood of Russia, which the latter saw as a threat to its security. It has been consistently demanded that Ukraine abandon its bid for NATO membership and maintain a neutral stance. 

 Russia-US ties 

The summit was crucial in normalising Russia-US ties that fell to their lowest since the Cold War. Putin called for turning the page and going back to cooperation between the two nations while stating that today’s agreements would also mark the beginning of the restoration of businesslike, pragmatic relations between them. Trump has resorted to a carrot-and-stick approach with Russia to stop its offensives in Ukraine. Russia has stressed enhancing its bilateral cooperation in the field of investment, trade, energy sector, digital industry, high technology, and space exploration, Arctic cooperation and the resumption of interregional ties, particularly between Russia’s Far East and the US West Coast.

Russia has been facing a myriad of economic sanctions from the US and Europe since it annexed Crimea in 2014. But with Trump's presidency, Russia-US trade has begun to grow. Now it has seen a 20 per cent rise, which is just symbolic. Trump is eager to promote economic cooperation with his big geopolitical rival once the war in Ukraine is over. The Russia-US rapprochement is taking place at a time when the US has launched a trade war with almost all its trading partners. This also sounds paradoxical as the US has imposed 50 per cent tariffs on India for buying Russian crude oil. Observers say the US is maneuvering to pull Russia away from China to maintain its economic and military superiority but its efforts are unlikely to dismantle Sino-Russia's 'no limit' partnership.

   (The author is Deputy Executive Editor of this daily.)