NSO predicts 5.1 % GDP growth in 2nd quarter

By A Staff Reporter,Kathmandu, Mar. 28: The National Statistics Office (NSO) has estimated 5.1 per cent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) at basic price in the second quarter of the current fiscal year 2024/25.

In the preliminary seasonally unadjusted quarterly GDP report made public on Wednesday, the NSO estimated an increase of 5.1 per cent in gross domestic product in the second quarter of the current fiscal year as compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year.

The positive economic growth in the second quarter was mainly driven by growth in the transportation, construction and agriculture sectors and improvement in generation and distribution of electricity and growth in financial intermediation.

In the sectoral comparison between the second quarter of the current fiscal year 2024/25 and the second quarter of the previous year 2023/24, out of the total 18 industrial classifications of the economy, the total value-added growth rate of all industrial sectors has been positive.

As per the estimation of the NSO, the activity related to transportation and storage sector has the highest growth rate of 14.2 per cent while mining and quarrying sector is the second highest growing with a growth rate of 9.5 per cent. 

Likewise, the electricity and gas sector accounted for 9.2 per cent during the review period.

Meanwhile, with the increment in the import and domestic production of construction materials, total value-added growth of the construction sector is estimated at 9.1 per cent. 

Similarly, the value-added growth of the manufacturing sector is estimated at 7.4 per cent, the financial and insurance sector at 6.6 per cent, wholesale and retail trade at 6.1 per cent and information and technology sector at 4.9 per cent.

The agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector, which accounts for the largest share of the economy, is estimated to have a value-added growth rate of 3.2 per cent, said the NSO.

The increase in the production of paddy, as well as the increase in vegetable and fruits and livestock production, seems to have had a positive impact on the total value added of this sector. 

Similarly, the growth rate of other sector activities, including public administration and defence (2.2 per cent), health (3.1 per cent), and real estate transactions (3.1 per cent), remained moderate during this quarter.

However, seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP at the basic price is estimated to increase only by 2.2 per cent in the second quarter of the current fiscal year compared to the first quarter of the current fiscal year.

Looking at seasonally adjusted quarterly gross value addition, economic activities increased in 16 of the total 18 economic sectors in the second quarter of the current fiscal year (Kartik, Mansgir and Poush) compared to the first quarter of the current fiscal year (Shrawan, Bhadra and Ashoj)), said the NSO. 

The value-added growth of two sectors, however, was negative during the review period. It estimated that the total value added in the transportation and storage sector would be 6.4 per cent during the review period.

Sector-wise, the value-added growth rate of financial and insurance sector would be 3.9 per cent during the review period. The value-added growth rate of the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector was 2.6 per cent during the second quarter of the current fiscal year.

Of the total, two industrial sectors with negative growth, electricity and gas sector has the highest negative growth rate of 4.8 per cent. Similarly, the growth rate of accommodation and food service activities has tumbled to a negative of 2.7 per cent.