Challenges In India’s Path To Global Power

Foreign Affairs magazine dedicated its July/August 2006 edition to “The Rise of India.” As various experts predicted, India’s rapid economic growth, military modernisation, and strategic diplomacy have positioned it as a major global player. However, its trajectory toward great power status remains anything but smooth and straightforward.

The path to realising India’s grand strategy involves “three concentric circles,” a framework articulated by Indian foreign affairs analyst C. Raja Mohan in his article “India’s Global Strategy,” that India needs to navigate. These three circles — immediate neighbourhood, the Indian Ocean littoral, and the global stage — define India’s foreign policy priorities and strategic challenges. While India has made remarkable progress in economic, military, and diplomatic arenas, its ability to translate these gains into sustained great power influence remains fraught with internal and external challenges.

Primary challenge 

India is the only South Asian country that shares land and maritime borders with all other regional states. Its primary challenge lies in its immediate vicinity, where its aspirations for leadership are often undercut by persistent tensions with its neighbours. Despite its growing economic and military stature, India’s regional dominance remains contested. Relations with Pakistan continue to oscillate between hostility and uneasy calm, with little progress on resolving tension in Kashmir or mitigating cross-border hostility. India also faces disputes with smaller neighbours like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and the Maldives, many of whom see China as a counterweight to Indian influence. 

Meanwhile, China’s expanding economic and strategic footprint in South Asia —through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and closer ties with regional states — further constrains India’s ambitions. The key challenge for India is to assert leadership without alienating its neighbours. India’s extended neighbourhood, stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Indo-Pacific, is critical to its geopolitical strategy. This region is the backbone of India's trade and energy security, with over 80 per cent of its crude oil imports and 90 per cent of its trade passing through the Indian Ocean. Securing maritime interests is thus an utmost necessity. A major success in this sphere has been India’s deepening ties with the United States, Japan, and Australia, particularly through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). 

The Quad has positioned India as a key player in countering China’s expanding influence in the Indo-Pacific. Additionally, India has strengthened defence and energy partnerships with the Gulf States, leveraging its economic ties and diaspora to bolster its influence. However, India faces formidable challenges, chief among them being China’s “String of Pearls” strategy — a network of strategic ports and military facilities spanning from the South China Sea to the Middle East. Beijing’s footholds at Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Kyaukpyu in Myanmar, and Djibouti in North East Africa create a strategic encirclement that limits India’s manoeuvrability. 

Unlike the other Quad members like the U.S. and Australia, India hesitates to take an overtly confrontational stance against its northern neighbour because, while the U.S. sees China as its primary rival, India must simultaneously manage an outstanding border dispute with China — a vulnerability that has long preoccupied the residents of the Raisina Hill. At the global level, India has made significant strides in multilateral diplomacy. It has assumed leadership roles on issues such as climate change, digital governance and global health. Its presidency of the G20 in 2023 was widely regarded as a diplomatic success, showcasing India’s ability to shape international discourse. 

Additionally, India has been a vocal advocate for United Nations Security Council (UNSC) reform, though its quest for a permanent seat remains blocked by institutional inertia and opposition from China. Despite these achievements, India faces three fundamental challenges in this outermost circle. First, its economic performance, while impressive, still lags behind that of China, limiting its ability to project power globally. Second, India’s democratic credentials—once a source of soft power — have come under scrutiny due to increasing concerns over press freedom, religious tensions, and authoritarian tendencies. 

Diplomatic agility 

Finally, India’s strategic balancing act between competing global powers — particularly the U.S., China, and Russia — requires diplomatic agility that will be increasingly tested in the current era of geopolitical volatility, especially with the U.S.’s complete U-turn in its traditional foreign policy. While the ongoing border standoff with China in Ladakh has exposed the limits of India’s military deterrence, its refusal to take a firm stance against Russian attack in Ukraine has led some of its European allies to question the credibility of the world’s “largest democracy.” Balancing non-alignment with strategic partnerships remains a tightrope walk, one that will determine India’s credibility as a global player.

India’s great power aspirations hinge on its ability to navigate the complexities of all three concentric circles simultaneously. It cannot lead in South Asia without stabilising its neighbourhood, cannot project influence in the Indo-Pacific without strengthening its economy, and cannot claim global leadership without proving itself as a problem solver in international affairs. As the world transitions to an era of multipolar competition, India’s choices in the coming decade will determine whether it remains an emerging power or solidifies its position among the world’s great powers.

(A PhD in political science from the State University of New York, Buffalo, the author is a faculty member at IACER. govinda@iacer.edu.np)