Three Big Parties Retain Dominance

The recently completed by-elections for several local-level positions provided crucial insight into what our political parties would confront when they brace themselves to participate in the next general elections due in November 2027. The outcome demonstrated that our major parties, despite performing what they termed as ‘satisfying one,’ will need to increase their connection to grassroots, who are not entirely happy with them due mainly to their lacklustre performance in delivering on all past and present promises. They further need to address internal party rifts and maintain a high degree of transparency in their activities for achieving a better outcome in the next elections.

The by-election results reflected that the three big parties have maintained dominance over other parties, especially those that claimed to be an alternative political force. The two big ruling parties, the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML, and the main opposition, CPN-Maoist Centre, enjoyed the three top positions in the local elections. They emulated the same dominance as in the parliamentary and provincial elections held in 2022.

Active participation 

The Nepali Congress won 19 of the 44 seats in the elections. This time around, local elections helped the Maoist Centre win 11 seats, up from eight earlier. The UML won eight seats, after previously winning seven. The Janata Samajwadi Party, which had previously won one seat, now holds two. The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), the much-touted alternative force, won just one seat in the first local elections it ran in. Similarly, the Unified Socialist Party and the Nepal Peasants and Workers Party both won one seat each, while an independent candidate took one. In by-elections held for 44 seats, 377 individuals competed for one mayor, one deputy mayor, and 33 ward chairs. 

Conducted in 32 districts in seven provinces, around 62 per cent of the 226,792 registered voters cast their ballots, demonstrating voters’ active participation in the democratic exercise of electing local representatives. The NC dominated in the Kirtipur Municipality as it clean-swept all four of the seats up for grabs. However, the largest party in the federal parliament conceded defeat to the RSP in the major seat of Kathmandu Metropolitan City-16, which has the second highest turnout. The RSP candidate snatched the position of ward chair in KMC-16 from the Nepali Congress, which finished third behind the RSP and the UML in this ward.

After the results were out, the three major parties expressed satisfaction with the outcome of the by-elections. The Nepali Congress had, however, conceded eight seats to rival parties in this by-election. Last time, the NC had won 27 of the current 44 positions, mainly thanks to its poll alliance with the Maoist Centre as well as Unified Socialist parties. This time, it received 19, conceding the other seats to rival parties. The NC, however, expressed its satisfaction over its outcome as it contested local by-elections on its own.

As three major parties contested this election without forming an electoral coalition, the results have come as an encouragement to them. Based on this outcome, the three parties have expressed that they would give continuity to the current trend of contesting elections on their own, with no poll partnership. The major parties' unwillingness to form an electoral coalition for the 2027 general election is a good sign for the country’s democracy. Electoral alliances frequently hinder genuine competition, restrict voter choices, and weaken the overall democratic process. The by-election results showed that parties may compete independently and yet win numerous seats.

Observers said that avoiding poll alliances during local by-elections enabled voters to elect their representatives from a wider range of political beliefs and candidates. It showed that parties and candidates had made their appeal directly to voters based on their principles and policies. Had they forged a poll alliance, they would have had to appeal to voters depending on pre-election agreements, which would have restricted voters to make their fair choices for electing candidates.

Meanwhile, the outcome conveyed yet another clear message. Voters will hold parties accountable and may change allegiances if their expectations for governance, development, and prosperity are not met. As our parties failed to sway voters, they faced challenges at the grassroots level. The Nepali Congress kept its electorate satisfied. The CPN-UML and Maoist Centre had mixed results, with the Maoist Centre regaining some momentum after winning seats held by other parties. However, both parties must do more to address popular issues and fulfil their commitments. With all the controversy surrounding the party, the outcome for the RSP cannot be described as a satisfying one. Other smaller parties also failed to challenge the status quo that favoured the major parties.

The by-election outcomes carried another unmistakable fact: to stay relevant and strengthen Nepal's democratic structure, parties must try to gain grassroots support. No one can deny that voters who are dissatisfied with the parties' performance may give them a significant blow when they vote in the general elections in November 2027. Parties are required to select their poll candidates based on their qualifications and popularity among grassroots members.

Voting trend 

The outcome indicated that the country has had more than 60 per cent of the communist vote. However, urban support for the communists has dwindled, with Congress and RSP winning in major metropolitan areas. Furthermore, the by-election and its results illustrated the maturation of Nepal's democracy. The smooth conduct of elections, with no major disruptions or violence, illustrates the electorate's dedication to fair processes.

Having said all, the results will encourage the big three parties, who claimed the local by-poll results to be both satisfying and encouraging, to run in the 2027 elections without forming an electoral alliance in order to respect the multi-party democratic process, in which voters must have genuine alternatives before selecting a single party to head the government. The electoral alliances not only confuse voters in making free and fair choices among parties and candidates, but they also frustrate them about the entire democratic process of electing their representatives.

(The author is a former managing editor of this daily.)