Decoding Dhaka-Delhi Signals

Well into the third month after taking charge as the head of Bangladesh’s interim government in August, Muhammad Yunus is giving an imprint of his government’s foreign policy. This comes at a time when relations between Bangladesh and India are audibly frosty. Forced to flee to India, former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wazed issued statements that were critical of the change in Dhaka and hinted of returning to serve her country. This only reiterated what her son Sazeeb Wazed had said earlier.

Seen as pro-India leader by many Bangladeshis during her 15-year rule, Hasina’s stay in India and spewing sharp criticisms against the new government as well as the main opposition, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), aggravate the situation. This has given grist to the rumour mills that Delhi might not be happy with Hasina’s ouster. New Delhi noted with marked appreciation of the Hasina government’s crackdown on anti-India insurgents who operated from Bangladesh. This expedited the settlement of the long festering border disputes between the two countries. 

Opposition leaders are quoted in the media as expressing surprise that neither ministerial meetings have been held between the two countries nor have Indian officials called on BNP leaders. Indian High Commissioner called on BNP leaders more than a month and a half after the changeover. After Hasina claimed that the West wanted her to sign an accord that would allow a power government to operate a military base on a Bangladeshi island, New Delhi showed interest in instituting an investigation into the matter.

‘Megaphone Diplomacy’

In an interview to the PTI news agency last month, Yunus warned his predecessor not to issue political statements during her India stay. This was interpreted by analysts that new government in Dhaka is prepared to postpone seeking extradition of the former prime minister if she became politically inactive. A carrot-and-stick approach seems to have been dangled at Delhi’s VVIP refugee.  The chief prosecutor of Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal, Mohammad Tajul Islam, has said the process of seeking her extradition in connection with the killings during the July-August protests had started. India and Bangladesh have extradition treaty. 

The Yunus team seems to mean business when invoking the treaty if the ousted leader became too active with the hope of lifting morale of her Awami League rank and file who are lying low after the street anger and protest rallies that made the army step in to give Hasina a short notice to leave the country or face the wrath of the youth protestors. Even as he stressed on the need for both countries to work for improved relationships, Yunus described the existing bilateral ties as being “at a low”. This did not go down well with the Indian side, which, according to the PTI, saw public discussion on contentious issues as “megaphone diplomacy”. 

Officials in Dhaka dismissed the charges of “megaphone” talk, pointing out that Indian leaders, too, talk to the media; and Yunus does likewise. During the previous BNP-led coalition government from 2001 to 2006, the bilateral relationship deteriorated, with Delhi accusing Dhaka of harbouring insurgents from India’s north-east. Yunus was hopeful of meeting Modi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September and said that reactivating the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SSARC) would resolve many regional problems. But Modi’s short visit to New York did not fit in a meeting with Yunus. 

On bilateral cooperation, Yunus views as important the support of both India and China to manage his country’s crisis, which indicated that equidistance, or equal treatment, might be the new policy. In the wake of a military crackdown in Myanmar's Rakhine State in 2017, more than one million Rohingya fled to neighbouring Bangladesh. Dhaka wants Myanmar to take them back but a stalemate has stalled progress. 

The marking of August 15 as national day in observance of the assassination of Mujibur Rahman, the father of the nation was not held this year. Indian commentators were worried about the event, suspecting foreign role behind the decision. Chakma rebels in the Chittagong area are reported to be getting active weeks after Hasina’s ouster. The army is very much in place. About 100 houses and shops were burnt, and some sections are trying to blame the army for the riot, when it did nothing but standing like a bystander without intervening. 

Brisk activity

Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami wants the national anthem, based on a composition of Indian’s Nobel Prize winning poet Rabindranath Tagore to be replaced by a new one composed by a Bangladeshi poet. Although Yunus rejected the proposal, the issue is likely to recur. Sinister elements always try to change national flag and other symbols that most sections see as factors of proud legacy, stability and reason. Pakistani High Commissioner Syed Ahamed Maroof is active having met with Dhaka University, much to chagrin of some analysts in India. Reports of Islamabad making offer of scholarships and free travel to the awardees are only expected to be closely monitored not only in Delhi but also other capitals in the region and beyond. 

Pakistan’s father of nation, Jinnah’s 76th death anniversary was celebrated in Dhaka on September 14, in what analysts said symbolised the healing wounds in a spirit of reconciliation. This was the first time that Bangladesh marked the event. After a major revolution, national policy can often change. It is, however, rare that drastic changes are made, especially in regional issues. This is reiterated by the emphasis Yunus put on meeting Modi and also a desire to revive SAARC for all practical purpose.

Dhaka had announced a ban on export of Hilsa fish. Since this came on eve of Durga Puja, it was quickly withdrawn with a decision to export 3,000 tonnes of Hilsa fish. Pragmatism has a place in politics.  After the August change in Dhaka, events have moved at a brisk pace. So far, the interim government in Dhaka seems to be pursuing an assertively independent policy. Delhi has not made any drastic statement to express umbrage at the events in Dhaka. 

Maturity in understanding the ground reality in both capitals should set things on an even keel. But the Modi government is unlikely to take any substantive initiative on its own any time soon to improve the bilateral ties that Yunus rates as a “low”. Delhi’s policy is to wait and watch Dhaka’s moves, which means both the capitals will take some time for cooperation and mutual understanding to reach the pre-August 5 level, if at all.

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)