Piecing Together Events In B’desh

Bangladesh’s new head of government, Muhammed Yunus, and his Pakistani counterpart Muhammed Shehbaz Sharif had a phone conversation last week, which was highlighted by the media in both the countries. The exchange came three days after Syed Ahmed Maroof, Pakistani High Commissioner in Dhaka, called on the Chief Adviser of Bangladesh Interim Government, appointed on August 8 to “uphold, support and protect the constitution”. Apparently, the Bangladeshi diplomat was laying the ground work for the phone call Sharif was to make, indicating the planning that had gone into the eventual exercise at the executive level. 

The phone contact was the first direct communication between the two leaders of overwhelmingly Muslim majority countries that once were unified wings of independent Pakistan. An official statement said the two leaders shared the view that “greater regional cooperation” leads to “uplifting the lives of the people of South Asia”. In the past, B’desh had sent feelers for ASEAN membership. Formed in 1997, BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) comprises five South Asian and two South-East Asian states—Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Thailand.

Thailand was to host the grouping’s sixth summit on September 4. As late as July 14, its Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa announced during the foreign ministers’ level retreat in New Delhi that his country was ready to host the top-level summit as per schedule. What transpired in-between is only a matter of speculation. Yunus had already confirmed his participation at the summit in Thailand in an indication of his confidence that the law-and-order situation in his country was recovering to normalcy.

Intriguing 

The summit’s postponement raises intriguing questions as to what might have caused the abrupt postponement. No major political upheaval or any new economic crisis can be sighted in the member states, except for the dramatic change of guard in Bangladesh, whereby Sheikh Hasina Wazed left for shelter in India at the height of days of student protests in Dhaka. Analyses are flying high over how best to pool South Asian resources for improving the living standards of the world’s largest regional grouping representing every fifth of humanity. BIMSTEC might achieve its declared objectives but it cannot be a substitute for the 1985 grouping launched in Dhaka. 

In fact, the Sharif-Yunus phone conversation put emphasis on regional cooperation. There is no other South Asia-specific organisation, except the eight-member SAARC, whose members include the Maldives, Pakistan and Afghanistan.  Hence SAARC could be a source of contact even at times of bilateral distractions and disturbances. Its regular summit gives no guarantee of resolving bilateral bitterness or something worse.

Myanmar was approached from the very beginning to join the South Asian grouping. It dithered and eventually joined Association of South-East Asian Nations. Afghanistan delayed its decision for years before getting aboard. Should a suitable forum emerge for sub-regional or inter-regional cooperation, such as BIMSTEC, the potential that SAARC’s carries could suffer a serious setback. 

Yunus, the Nobel Peace Prize-winning economist, 84, has warned India that instability in his country could affect the latter’s North-East and West Bengal states, along with neighbouring Myanmar. He recalled that Bangladesh’s 170 million had faced instability in the breakdown of law and order for long.

Having secured a fourth consecutive term in the main opposition-boycotted January election, Hasina seemed overconfident over her style of governance. Former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia was arrested in 2015 and later convicted of corruption, which led to her being banned from politics. Opposition parties accused the government of arresting more than 7,000 of their activists prior to the election. Hasina’s Awami League and its allies went on to win 288 of 300 seats.

Even as the political situation remains fluid, the much-sought after taste of change is awaited. The next step should be fresh elections, though it is not certain when they will be scheduled. Wazed had returned home in the wee hours of July 11 after talks with President Xi Jinping, Prime Minister Li Qiang and other Chinese leaders. The two sides were in accord to strengthen coordination in international and multilateral affairs. Dhaka and Beijing agreed to increase use of local currency in bilateral trade. Wazed welcomed Chinese banks to establish branches in Bangladesh, and vice versa. 

Both sides pledged to encourage increased use of local currency settlement in bilateral trade. Bangladesh reiterated its firm commitment to the one-China principle and its position that the government of the People's Republic of China represents the whole of China, and Taiwan is part of China. Bangladesh supported China in the latter’s efforts at safeguarding its national sovereignty and territorial integrity. 

In 2022, Bangladesh recorded 7.2 per cent GDP growth, one of the fastest in the world, and also higher than those of India, Indonesia and the Philippines, among Asian nations. It is emerging to be an upper-middle income country.  About 98 per cent of children complete primary school education.

Awaited change

Bangladesh graduates from the UN Least Developed Countries status in 2026, as it seeks a steady progress toward realising the Vision 2041 of a “Smart Bangladesh”. Meanwhile, the groups that supported the July protest movement accuse Awami League members of easily securing bail for serious crimes, if they were charged at all. Government contracts often went to the party’s cronies. State-owned banks were weighed down by loans that those with contacts in high places declined to repay. There was no point going to court, as the party with close ties to the Awami League invariably won. 

After Wazed claimed that the West was involved in instigating the agitation against her, the Indian government announced it would investigate whether any “foreign hand” was behind Bangladesh’s political crisis. Promises alone will not hold the people together. The initial flush of enthusiasm and ebullience might wane and fuel another spell of mass frustrations. Law and order, jobs, equal opportunities and justice are called for. It would do well for Yunus to address the immediate challenges and delve into the crucially important delivery-task in a spirit of equality, meritocracy and fair deal. This is essential for his personal reputation as well as the nation’s welfare. 

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)