Nepal's Male-female Ratio Expected To Alter

Life on earth continues through reproduction, which produces males and females who then continue to reproduce their species. A sex ratio is the proportion of males to females in a population. According to Fisher’s principle, for evolutionary reasons, this is typically 1:1 in species that reproduce sexually. However, many species deviate from an even sex ratio, either periodically or permanently. Examples include parthenogenic species and periodically mating organisms like aphids, some eusocial wasps, bees, ants, and termites.

In humans, sex ratios at birth can be significantly skewed by several factors, including the age of the mother, sex-selective abortion, and infanticide. In their research, 'Reduced ratio of male to female births in several industrial countries: a sentinel health indicator?' Davis DL, Gottlieb MB, and Stampnitzky JR also mention climate change, pesticide use, and other environmental contaminants as significant contributing factors behind the reduced ratio of male to female. As mentioned in the Field Listing-Sex Ratio, CIA Factbook, 2023 estimates that, as of 2024, the global sex ratio at birth is approximately 107 boys to 100 girls. By old age, the sex ratio reverses, with 81 older men for every 100 older women. However, across all ages, the global population is nearly balanced, with 101 males for every 100 females.

Disparities 

Nepal’s census shows that the country’s population has more females than males. However this may not be the reality in the future. According to Chao, F., KC, S., & Ombao, H. in their study, Estimation and probabilistic projection of levels and trends in the sex ratio at birth (srb) in seven provinces of Nepal from 1980 to 2050: a Bayesian modeling approach, published by BMC Public Health, the national sex ratio at birth (SRB) in Nepal is reported to be around normal. However, this report also highlights that the national SRB could mask disparities within the country. Given the demographic and cultural heterogeneities in Nepal, it is crucial to model SRB on a subnational level.

The study found that in 2016, the highest SRB was estimated in Lumbini Province at 110.2 male births per 100 female births, with a 95 per cent credible interval. The lowest SRB was in Madhesh Pradesh, at 1.053. The probabilities of SRB imbalances in all provinces are generally low, varying from 16 per cent in Madhesh Province to 81 per cent in Lumbini Province. SRB imbalances are estimated to have begun as early as 2001 in Lumbini, with a 95 per cent credible interval ranging from 1992 to 2022, and as late as 2017, with a range from 1998 to 2040 in Madhesh Province. 

The report projects that SRB in all provinces will begin converging back to the national baseline by the mid-2030s. By 2050, SRBs in all provinces are projected to be around the baseline level. The report concludes that most provinces in Nepal have low risks of SRB imbalances for the period from 1980 to 2016, although a few provinces have higher probabilities of SRB inflation. World Bank data shows that the sex ratio at birth in South Asia was reported at 1.0675 in 2022. An analysis of data from different parts of the world indicates a preference for male children over female, leading to fewer girls being born compared to boys in South Asian, East Asian, and Central Asian countries.

According to UNFPA, parental sex selection has led to distorted levels of sex ratio at birth, reaching between 110 and 120 male births per 100 female births in several countries, highlighting the intensity of gender discrimination and son preference. The trend has shifted geographically over time, beginning in several Asian countries, including China, India, and the Republic of Korea in the 1980s, followed by countries in the Caucasus, such as Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia in the 1990s. More recently, countries like Montenegro, Albania, and Vietnam have followed suit.

It is not an exaggeration to say that, despite advancements in human civilisation and the digital age providing information at our fingertips, the age-old patriarchal value system of preferring male children over females is on the rise. The human rights of women who want to give birth without discrimination, and the rights of all the girls who are prevented from being born, are being increasingly eroded in this so-called modern age. Technology, which was created to help humans, is being used to support Gender-Based Violence (GBV).

Infanticide

The projected SRB in Nepal, as cited in the aforementioned report, is an important illustration of potential future prenatal sex discrimination and highlights the need to monitor SRB in provinces with higher possibilities of imbalance. In several countries, there are provinces with villages that have no girls. Several movies have been made based on this reality. However, despite advances in knowledge and technology, a holistic approach to the rights of all humans does not seem to be adopted globally.

While several tests during pregnancy are important to ensure the well-being of both the mother and the foetus, it is a shame that women are often forced to abort based on sex selection against their will. There may also be male parents who prefer to have girls, but due to the traditional, patriarchal value system of their communities, they remain silent. It is important to understand that this silence actually supports the serious crime of infanticide. If the Nepal government and its people do not take action against the factors preventing the birth of daughters, the future will be bleak, with fewer girls than boys.

(Sharma is a senior journalist and women's rights advocate. namrata1964@yahoo.com. Twitter handle: @NamrataSharmaP)