Leveraging The Flair Of Diplomacy

The science and art of diplomacy are shifting from boudoir, aristocratic and democratic to multi-dimensional one. It equally marks a shift in its secret roots to democratic transparency. In a changing axis of world politics, economic rationality plays a vital role in the foreign policy determination of Nepal but political and cultural diplomacy is no less salient. Nepal has a small GDP of $ 14.18 billion. The question is whether economic diplomacy is based on national development wisdom or strategic or political end of regime support. Today, it is not only ambassadors who represent the nation and conduct diplomacy. Political leaders, security personnel, bureaucracy, business persons, civil society, spiritual figures, eminent persons and citizens play imaginative roles in multi-track diplomacy and open out creative possibilities for the nation’s freedom of manoeuver. 

There is an objective reason for small states like Nepal to pursue classic diplomacy as a tool and tact of the state. In a wider gaze of global relations, a diverse set of non-state actors also struggle to get support in social, economic, political and ecological affairs and enhance foreign policy effectiveness. Thomas Schelling says, “Diplomacy is bargaining, it seeks outcomes that, though not ideal for either party, are better for both than some of the alternatives. In diplomacy, each party somewhat controls what the other wants, and can get more by compromise, exchange or collaboration than by taking things in his own hands and ignoring the other’s wishes.”

Diplomatic efficacy

Diplomatic efficacy of Nepal rests on how cognitive, institutional and leadership capabilities are mobilised and concerted. The artistic skill, daring ability, inventive intelligence and goodwill of national diplomats to pursue bargaining, negotiations, communication, compromise and adjustments in support of national interests are vital qualities that shore up the craving of people for stability, wellbeing and certainty. Nepal’s non-aligned foreign policy based on post-Westphalian values of Pachasheel helped it to adapt to the cross-currents of mutually exclusive doctrines, alliances and strategies of great powers externally and cultivate civic nationalism of Nepalisation.  Geopolitics is governed by the logic of power and strategy, not constitutional rules. 

Nepal, holds a locational advantage between two powerhouses of Asia - India and China. Both are giving priority to neighbourhoods through their policy initiative of connectivity. Strategic geography can be utilised to get support from the world’s major powers and improve its diplomatic clout. Nepal’s strategic geography has made security the dominant concerns of big neighbours — India and China but also extra-regional powers who are interested to utilise Nepali sites for strategic purposes infusing security dilemmas to neighbours. It might help the nation to step out of its geopolitical buffer through diversification, improve cultural self-image, credibility and acceptability and reduce vulnerability to the choices of great powers. Balance between two antagonist super and regional powers had offered it a sizable choice to manoeuver in the past. 

Now, Nepal's security is constrained by scarcity of public goods and a myriad of transnational links to the centrifugal forces of society. National sovereignty must equal its capabilities and the flair of its diplomacy. Nepali leaders have panache in raising problems rather than using diplomacy to solve them.  The necessity of apt public policy and institutional means to augment production, exchange and distribution is vital to spur diplomatic buoyancy.  Effective economic diplomacy enhances the viability of the nation for survival, progress and peace and overcome the vulnerabilities arising out of over expectations of its people for belter life or unreasonable geopolitical penetration on its national issues. Nepal’s foreign policy is geared now to get more grant, loan and investments and international job opportunities to complement its diminishing resources.

 It is seeking to diversify trade relations to keep a balance between its disproportional imports relative to miniscule exports and manage increasing debt servicing ratio. Its trade deficits stand at $927 million. The nation has to develop a niche in the export of high-value added goods offered by its natural potentials including sale of surplus electricity to offset trade deficits. It is important to reduce dependency. Now the cold war rationality of political and strategic concern of grant which made Nepal a pivot of aid spree owing to its strategic heft no longer exists.  Bulk of aid money had been used to buy the advice of foreign consultants, bearing the office and some social projects, not achieve sustainable progress.  Now, the loan has outpaced the grant thus increasing the nation’s external debt to $9.6 billion. A large chuck of aid money goes towards paying the interest of lenders.

 And aid is insufficient in a scale necessary to invest in priority sectors though it has pervaded all sectors of society to model Nepali nation in the aid givers’ ideals of political economy. Foreign direct investment stands at $ 14.7 million this year which is insufficient for its economic takeoff or to catch the rank of developing nations. The conditionalised aid has pushed Nepal’s economy to the direction of neo-liberal denationaliaation, not in tune with political realists’ policy paradigm to foster national interests and enhance national freedom of action in international politics. The primacy of financial capitalism over agricultural and industrial capitalism has fostered a consumerist paradigm in which consumption exceeded the production leaving no surplus for investment in the production sector, fulfilling basic human needs and utilising comparative advantage of national products in a world of competitive markets.  It is slightly improving in health, IT products, hydropower, tourism and certain essential items.

Democratic freedom does not endorse structural adjustment where Nepali nation and people have no choice in public policy and diplomacy but succumb to reflexive progress. It acts against natural selection in a race of ruthless competition of commerce, communication and technology. Nepal has to enhance its multi-scale diplomacy where it has leverage. Nepal is a security producer for many nations. The conscription of Nepalis in the security architecture of QUAD and NATO members has added its certain leverage. Nepalis joining the Russia and Ukrainian armies without any formal accord with them and fighting in war zones brew trouble. The official request to return Nepalis requires a template, not protest, and agile skill in negotiation. 

It is a producer of security commodities for the UN peacekeeping operations though its own security needs to be beefed up to exercise national self-determination. “Security is like oxygen. You tend not to notice it until you begin to lose it, but once that occurs there is nothing else that you will think about,” says Joseph Nye. Nepal remains a nation which has underachieved the goal of utilising its natural, human and resource potential. Resource potential, especially sharing of hydropower with India, China and Bangladesh can add strength to its leverage if the spirit of trust and cooperation leaps. The nation has to overcome several trade and transit barriers in the areas of productivity, connectivity, communication, transportation and market access. The daily emigration of 3,000 Nepali workers to South, Southeast, East and West Asia adds another dimension. 

The contribution of remittance to GDP is much higher than tax, foreign aid, tourism and foreign investments. Nepal earns a huge remittance $ 5.5 billion to support macroeconomic stability, foreign currency reserves, decentralise development programmes and local economic dynamism and keep on integrating Nepal to the global political economy. Youth bulge can serve its demographic dividend if their skill gaps are bridged via a better education system. It can also discourage the mass emigration of students depriving the nation of a critical mass of dynamism. Nepal had earlier adopted import-substituting industrialisation, built its linkage with the modernisation of agriculture and promoted social cooperatives in each village. The goal was to promote food self-sufficiency, national economic independence and escape from a situation of extreme dependence on the external world. This policy suffers now. 

Nepal joined the WTO at a time when the goods to be exported are little and deficits in trade are poorly compensated by the winners. As a result, it stands as a price-taker in the global system and consumer of alien goods, ideologies, theories, policies and admin practices acting as liability, than an asset, in its diplomatic manoeuvrability. Nepal has created leverage in international politics by joining several rival international regimes including the UN, becoming active in conference diplomacy and passing value judgment on global issues. Cooperative choice can improve its leverage if shared interests, not exclusively national interests, dominate diplomacy. Yet, the inertia of SAARC marks its inability to spur the regional economy of scale, specialisation and entrepreneurial dynamism to expand the share of its trade in the global economy.

Nepali diasporas have double roles in economic diplomacy: modernise the nation and act as active interlocutors between Nepal and their place of residence. The settlement of Nepalis in India, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia, China and many Western nations can contribute to its nation-building. They had helped the nation during natural calamities. Its soft power of Shivaism, Buddhism, Chandannath and several cults, if properly utilised, can make it gravitational pull for religious pilgrimage, tourists and cultural researchers and radiate its cultural diplomacy. Nepal’s Himalayas constitute not only water towers but also ecological security zones for South Asian and Southeast Asian nations. Nature does not move as per human reasons but, on the contrary, humans have to adjust to nature’s ability to regenerate in the interconnected web of life. 

International cooperation

In this sense, Nepal can mobilise international cooperation for the preservation of diverse ecological zones for the mutual interests of those affected. New departure in diplomacy requires new insights about the evolving geopolitical and geo-economic trends pivoting to Asia, new skills and new courage that balance its regional and global policies and resolve many foreign policy issues bubbling up in the political surface.  The disjuncture in its domestic political instability, which leads to recalling of Nepali ambassadors with change in government, has strained its diplomatic deftness that requires a non-partisan, non-ideological and non-aligned frame.  It helps Nepal to escape from plunging into undesirable reality. Judgment on the efficacy of diplomacy is defined by the standards of achievement of leadership of various sectors including those of related ministries, 30 embassies, 7 consulate generals and 3 permanent missions for the UN.

For the success of its substantive diplomacy, management of certain areas is essential: solving of border problems, protection of human rights of Nepali workers abroad, apt utilisation of its natural resources and soft power, negotiation on reducing trade deficits, debt relief and dependency and preventing external penetration on its initiatives. To achieve these goals Nepal has to shift from its personalised and regime-oriented foreign policy and diplomacy to the people and state-oriented ones. In a personalised one, institutional memory suffers and coherence of implementing agencies face sterility in the face of competing international powers, regimes and their conflicting incentives. Policy concentration of actors, agencies and think tanks and their foresight and wisdom are essential to leverage the flair of its diplomatic effectiveness.

(Former Reader at the Department of Political Science, TU, Dahal writes on political and social issues.)