Maoist-UML Alliance Takes Shape

Deepening misunderstanding and mistrust between the two key partners of the ruling alliance has resulted not only in the coalition's disintegration, but also in another round of political instability in the country. After the new political picture emerged, the Nepali Congress, the largest party in parliament, found itself on the receiving end, while the main opposition, the CPN-UML, became successful in its attempt to break the present coalition and join the new one. The new alliance means that the Congress will be unable to lead the government, whereas the new arrangement may allow the UML to head the next administration in due time. 

The recent occurrence must have left Congress leaders, particularly the Congress president Sher Bahadur Deuba, thinking about forming a future partnership with the communist parties. With the new government, the Congress will lose its advantage in provinces, with several of its chief ministers and provincial ministers losing their positions. The dissolution of the five-party ruling coalition resulted in the formation of a new coalition and government led by Prime Minister and CPN-Maoist Centre chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda, who brought together the UML, Rastriya Swatantra Party and Janata Samajbadi Party to establish a new coalition. The PM, who is scheduled to leave his office after a year, is likely to extend his term with the establishment of the new coalition, assuming he receives backing from the UML and other new alliance members. 

Mistrust

Talks inside the Maoist Centre to alter the year-old coalition gained traction in recent weeks. However, no one was certain that the Maoist chair and Prime Minister Prachanda would ditch the Nepali Congress once again like he did a year ago when he took the helm on December 29 last year and joined forces with his former adversary, the UML and its chairman, KP Sharma Oli. However, widening disagreements over a variety of issues strained relations between the two main allies, prompting many to fear that the Prime Minister would discard the Congress if the largest party did not act quickly to dispel mistrust. 

What were the pressing matters that caused tension between the two? The issue of the new National Assembly chair did undoubtedly rock the coalition boat, but other issues also threw doubt on the Congress-Maoist alliance's long-term viability. Other concerns have fueled the fire of suspicion. Mistrust has grown since the Congress's recently concluded Mahasamiti session. During the party's top decision-making and policy-making body's conclave, the Congress agreed not to forge a pre-poll alliance with any party when the party will contest its general election in 2027.  

On the sidelines of the conclave, a group of Congress members submitted a memorandum to the party president urging that the country be reverted to a Hindu state, which irritated the Maoists even more. The Maoist Centre appeared to be deeply hurt and thus objected to this decision. PM Prachanda and his party members were also dissatisfied with the presentation of a policy document in which the Congress Vice President described the decade-long Maoist insurgency as unnecessary, which 'led to present economic suffering in the country.' 

Most importantly, the Maoist Centre felt cheated during the election of upper house members from Koshi Province, when some Congress lawmakers went against the alliance and voted for the UML candidate at the expense of Maoists one, whereas Maoist lawmakers voted for senior Congress leader Krishna Sitaula, who was projected as the next National Assembly chair. Also, the Maoist chair felt duped when some rebel Congress lawmakers, led by senior NC leader Shekhar Koirala, received unexpected assistance from the UML to elect one of the rebel Congress leaders as Koshi chief minister in September last year, further enraging the ex-rebels, who had expected one of their candidates to be elected, as agreed by the NC president. 

The Maoist leaders intended to exact revenge by nominating their candidate for upper house chair at the expense of NC senior leader Sitaula, and they sought assistance from the UML, which appeared to have given its approval. The Maoist leaders' warning that they would withdraw from the coalition was motivated by mounting displeasure with some ministers representing the Congress. Recently, the Prime Minister decided to restructure his cabinet and replace many current ministers who did not meet his expectations. He wanted to replace Congress ministers accused of corruption and abuse of authority. But he did not receive any help from the NC president. Deuba gave in to the PM's pressure at the last minute only to see the coalition collapse. 

Deuba, who is expected to become the next Prime Minister under the gentlemen's agreement, most likely began to sense a threat to his chances once Prachanda began hobnobbing with his former foe, Oli. Though many perceived it as Prachanda's pressure tactics, several Congressmen were concerned that, given his track record, Prachanda would go to any length, even joining forces with his opponent, which he did by joining hands with the UML.  

Pressures

Many political observers believe that PM Prachanda will face pressures of various nature even after creating a new alliance. He was obliged to join the Congress a year ago due to pressure from numerous quarters, including purported foreign power centres. This time, some experts believe Prachanda will face pressure even after forming an alliance with the UML, whose chair has had strained relations with such a power centre. 

Meanwhile, the formation of the new government and coalition has thrown light on the current situation of Nepali political events, which is characterised by frequent changes in governments that usually cause instability and affect all aspects of Nepali society. Since the restoration of democracy in the 1990s, the country has had approximately as many governments. Since then, no prime minister has been able to serve the whole term. The new government is simply another sign that the poor record of Nepali politicians will continue for some time. 

(The author is former managing editor of this daily.)