NA Election Outcome No Threat To Ruling Coalition

Discord among the ruling alliance's main parties emerged following the National Assembly (NA) election's shocking Koshi results. The alliance's top brass had hoped to fill one of the female quota seats with a CPN-Maoist Centre candidate, but a number of Nepali Congress lawmakers, municipal chiefs and deputy chiefs, and rural municipality chairs and deputy chairs cast a cross-vote in favour of the UML candidate, who won the NA ballot held on January 25. Soon after the unexpected outcome, Maoist Centre officials began berating the Nepali Congress for their candidate Champa Karki's loss in the election. After seeing that their combined vote total would be higher than that of opposing parties like the UML and Rastriya Prajatantra Party, the Nepali Congress and Maoist Centre decided to field a single candidate each for Koshi province and ensure their election.

The UML candidate, however, narrowly defeated her opponent for the NA female seat, thanks to the votes of a small number of Nepali Congress voters who were visibly dissatisfied with the party leadership in the centre. But out of the 19 NA seats up for grabs, the alliance has taken home eighteen. The Nepali Congress bagged 10, the Maoist Centre 5, the Unified Socialist 2, and Janata Samajwadi Party 1. The outcome has made the Maoist Centre the number one party in the NA, while the UML, the first party, has now been relegated to the third position.

Cross-voting

Some disgruntled Congress members in Koshi allegedly gave back to the UML by supporting UML candidate Rukmini Koirala, according to observers. The UML was instrumental in Kedar Karki's (a member of the Nepali Congress) election as chief minister last October. The continuing power struggle inside the Nepali Congress is partly to blame for this as well. The group led by Shekhar Koirala was successful in receiving the support of the UML in Koshi to elect Karki as Chief Minister.   

The rebel faction’s leader, Koirala, is routinely seen hobnobbing with the UML chief and was key in receiving the main opposition’s backing. In Koshi, many had anticipated that the two alliance candidates — Congress stalwart Krishna Prasad Sitaula and Maoist Champa Karki —might lose owing to the control of the Koirala-led faction members as well as the smaller vote weight of the alliance against the opposition. However, much to the delight of Sitaula, who had lost his House of Representatives election from Jhapa, the disgruntled Congress members voted for him to ensure his election but went against the Maoist-fielded female candidate. With the victory, Sitaula is projected to become the next NA chairperson.

Earlier, some had thought that both coalition candidates would win since the alliance was ahead with thin votes. Also, just before the NA polling, the UML and RPP chiefs came together and deployed their resources in Koshi to ensure the UML and RPP candidates won. The RPP candidate, Uddhav Poudel, who was matched against Sitaula too, lost by a small margin.  The unexpected outcome, an obvious result of the Congress members’ cross-voting, did ruffle the feathers of certain Maoist officials who wanted the party leadership to reconsider their alliance with the Nepali Congress, who, according to them, is 'ready to backstab them’ anytime they have the chance. 

Surprisingly, Maoist Centre chair Prachanda has not voiced a harsh word against the alliance partner over the result, as he recognised that the defeat of his candidate was the work of a section that is not satisfied with president Sher Bahadur Deuba. Some Congressmen close to Deuba indicated that they were also not happy with the loss of the Maoist member and then roundly laid the blame on the faction members led by Koirala for the unexpected loss. Many Congressmen attacked their members, who cross-voted, for not respecting the sanctity of the alliance by supporting the biggest opposition party, which is always ready to topple the coalition government at the centre and provinces.

Now, many are asking: will the coalition between the Congress and Maoist Centre disintegrate following the NA election outcome in Koshi province? Given the existing structure of the coalition and the composition of the administration, it is less probable that the Maoist Centre will rupture its alliance with Congress. Indeed, the partnership with the Congress has placed the former rebels in the driving seat of the government and has also enabled numerous ex-rebellious figures to become significant ministries. If and when they leave the coalition, they will presumably join forces with the UML, with whom they have no positive relations. A year ago, they broke ties with the UML to join up with Congress.

Dissatisfaction 

It seems that the Maoist Centre Chair, Prachanda, has found a close friend in Deuba, who has until now been playing second fiddle despite the Congress being the largest party in the coalition government. Deuba is generally reluctant to criticise the government or Maoist leaders, especially when the latter commit mistakes that have an impact on the well-being of the alliance. Besides the Koirala-led group, there are others in Congress who regularly voice their unhappiness with their leadership, making coalitions and granting free hand to the Maoist Chair in the cabinet. The level of patience displayed by the Congress leadership is largely due to the forthcoming opportunity that would make him the next PM, probably in a year’s time. The five-party coalition has been created with an agreement dictating that the Congress president will become Prime Minister on a rotating basis.

The benefit of continuing in power for the full term of five years despite being in third place in the House of Representatives will be the key to keeping intact the existing alliance between the Congress, the Maoist Centre, and three fringe parties. Hence, there is less probability that the alliance would split apart because of the loss of a candidate for the NA slot, although it has upset a major partner.

(The author of former managing editor of this daily.)