Democrats' new primary calendar remains unresolved but the party insists that's OK

Washington, July : New Hampshire is in open rebellion. Georgia is all but out. South Carolina and Nevada are on board but face stiff Republican pushback. Michigan's compliance may mean having to cut the state legislative session short, despite Democrats controlling both chambers and the governor's mansion.

Then there's Iowa, which is looking for ways to still go first without violating party rules.

Months after the Democratic Party approved President Joe Biden's plan to overhaul its primary order to better reflect a deeply diverse voter base, implementing the revamped order has proven anything but simple. Party officials now expect the process to continue through the end of the year — even as the 2024 presidential race heats up all around it.

“Despite the fact that it looked like relatively smooth sailing for the president when he proposed it ... the kind of backlash you’re hearing, the reactions, are exactly what we would have expected," said David Redlawsk, chair of the political science department at the University of Delaware and co-author of the book “Why Iowa? How Caucuses and Sequential Elections Improve the Presidential Nominating Process.”

The DNC says it prepared for an arduous process, but is not too concerned by the uncertainty, in part because Biden faces only minor primary challengers in self-help author Marianne Williamson and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Biden's political advisers say the president doesn't expect to campaign extensively in the Democratic primary and instead will focus on the general election. But the primary calendar drama might nonetheless prove a headache for Democrats who want to project unity ahead of 2024 and might spell trouble for 2028 when the party has promised to revisit its primary calendar anew.

Jim Roosevelt, co-chairman of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, said he “was not surprised” at the objections of Iowa and New Hampshire since they are losing their leadoff spots, and that the committee is “definitely able to work around” the protests of Republicans in places adjusting to new rules or new slots on the calendar.

“I think having a sitting president is the most likely time to make a fundamental change to make the process more representative,” said Roosevelt, who also noted that the party last enforced a reordering of its primary calendar ahead of a competitive presidential primary in 2008.

It will get that chance again, though, since a potential reorder next cycle will come when, no matter what happens in 2024, there won’t be an incumbent Democratic president seeking reelection.

Another long, contentious new calendar process then might mean uncertainty with real electoral consequences perhaps even making it difficult for Democrats running in a competitive presidential primary to know where to campaign, hire staff and advertise. The party can try and mitigate that by starting its 2028 calendar discussions early, potentially even weeks after next year's election.

The prospect of another drawn-out fight won't deter the party, though: “Definitely we’ll see this again in 2028," Roosevelt said.

In the meantime, the DNC isn't planning to alter the 2024 plan it approved in February stripping Iowa's caucus of the leadoff spot it held since 1972, and replacing it with South Carolina, which is set to have its primary Feb. 3. Going second, three days later, were supposed to be New Hampshire and Nevada, which is scrapping its caucus in favour of a primary.

The new order had them being followed by Georgia's primary on Feb. 13 and Michigan's two weeks after that. Those states would precede most of the rest of the country, which would vote on Super Tuesday in early March giving them enormous influence on deciding which primary candidates can make it that far. (AP)