HKH region on track to lose up to 80% glacier: ICIMOD

Kathmandu, June 21: The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) glaciers have vanished at a staggering rate, disappearing 65 per cent faster between 2011 and 2020 compared to the previous decade. 

A study revealed that the HKH glaciers could lose up to 80 per cent of their current volume by the end of the century if current emissions trajectories continue. 

High emissions scenarios also project a potential 25 per cent decrease in snow cover, significantly reducing freshwater availability in major rivers such as the Amu Darya, Indus, and Helmand. Additionally, diminishing permafrost poses risks of increased landslides and infrastructure challenges at higher elevations.

A peer-reviewed study conducted by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has issued a dire warning about the rapidly changing Asia high mountain cryosphere and its severe consequences for both human life and nature. 

A landmark assessment report released on Tuesday highlights the unprecedented and largely irreversible changes occurring in the glaciers, snow, and permafrost of the HKH region due to global warming. 

The report, titled “Water, Ice, Society, and Ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalaya” (HI-WISE), examines the interconnections between the cryosphere, water resources, biodiversity, and society in the region, shedding light on the impacts of rapid cryosphere changes on both people and nature.

According to the report, the HKH region serves as a vital water source for 12 rivers, benefiting approximately 240 million people in mountainous areas and an additional 1.65 billion downstream. 

Vulnerable mountain communities are already experiencing adverse impacts, including disasters causing loss of life, property, heritage, infrastructure damage, displacement, and psychological effects.

Miriam Jackson, ICIMOD’s Senior Cryosphere Specialist and IPCC lead author, in an interview with The Rising Nepal, said referring to the report 

an estimated 129 million farmers in the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra basins depend on water that comes from glacier melt and snowmelt to irrigate their crops. 

Especially during the warm and dry months before the monsoon rains start, the availability of meltwater flow is crucial to irrigate their crops. Meltwater from glaciers and snow plays an especially important role as a buffer during drought periods and in the spring. Furthermore, dependency on glaciers and snowmelt is likely to increase in the future.

Talking about the Nepal side, Jackson said that the Seismic hazard (risk of earthquakes) is high for the whole country, and Nepal is still dealing with the consequences of the 2015 earthquake, so it means that Nepal has one more thing to deal with. 

ICIMOD’s Deputy Director General, Izabella Koziell, in a press statement said that the importance of acting swiftly to prevent catastrophe, emphasising the critical role of emission reductions, adaptation measures, ecosystem restoration, and mobilisation of finance for losses and damages.

Sunita Chaudhary, ICIMOD Ecosystem Services Specialist, in an interview based on the report, said that cryospheric changes interact with other drivers of change such as land cover change, invasive species and over-harvesting in multi-dimensional ways, amplifying the impacts on biodiversity significantly at species and ecosystems level. 

The combined effects are the degradation of ecosystems, significant changes in the structure and composition of species, and sometimes extinction. 

In recent years, a sharp decline in caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) has also been reported across the region. The caterpillar fungus is threatened by the combined pressures of climate change and over-exploitation.

The study indicates that water availability in the HKH region will peak around mid-century due to accelerated glacial melt, followed by a projected decline. Variability in meltwater from glaciers and snow introduces considerable uncertainty for both mountain and lowland populations, contributing to increased risks of floods, landslides, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). 

The report identifies 200 glacier lakes in the HKH as dangerous, and GLOF risk is expected to rise significantly by the century’s end. Combined with population growth and economic activities, these hazards heighten the potential for loss, damage, and population displacement.

According to Chaudhary, “Most of the high-elevation ecosystems are fragile and vulnerable to the changing cryosphere. Some of these ecosystems are forests, peatlands, rangeland, wetlands, and their inhabitant species. Endemic species, in particular, are at increased risk as even a slight change in the optimal combinations of temperature and precipitation can lead to a sharp decline in their survival rate and, ultimately, extinction. For instance, Abies spectabilis, Pinus wallichiana, Juniperus polycarpos have already been shifting towards higher elevation areas.”

There are many threats to downstream infrastructure, human settlements, livelihoods, and economies due to changes in the cryosphere. One is the occurrence of sudden floods from glaciers. As glaciers retreat, water can be dammed in front or at the side of the glacier. As lake volume increases, the chance of a flood happening increases, Jackson said.

Experts and officials stress the urgent need for governments, donors, and agencies to take immediate action to exit fossil fuels, fulfill commitments to limit warming, assist communities in adapting to existing temperature rises, and compensate for the losses experienced.

The report emphasises the urgent need for support and financing to help communities and governments prepare for the accelerated impacts of cryosphere changes as temperatures rise. 

The current funding allocated to the region is deemed inadequate in addressing the challenges ahead. Devastating consequences are predicted for water and food security, energy sources, ecosystems, and the lives and livelihoods of millions of people across Asia, many of which may surpass the limits of adaptation.