Quest For Peace In West Asia

The failure of Pakistan-sponsored peace negotiations between the United States and Iran has threatened to push the ongoing war in West Asia further up the escalation ladder, raising the spectre of a new round of devastating military confrontation and a deepening global economic crisis. Since the war began on 28 February with the joint pre-emptive attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel, the region has suffered unprecedented devastation. A 23-hour-long marathon negotiation was convened in Islamabad following the threat of US President Donald Trump to launch a ground attack and his controversial rhetoric to bring Iranian civilisation to extinction. His dangerously irresponsible comments, 'a whole civilization would die out tonight' and 'we would bring the Iranians back to the Stone Age' drew widespread global condemnation as a veiled threat to use nuclear weapons. 

Fortunately, Donald Trump stopped short of his apocalyptic threat, leaving a narrow space for a negotiated resolution of the crisis. Largely a war of choice, this conflict stems from the clash of interests of Israel and Iran for regional dominance, compounded by the US efforts to contain the emerging multipolar world order led by Asian powers like China, Russia and India. During the past 46 days, Iran has also emerged as a formidable regional power by showcasing significant ballistic and hypersonic missile capability.

Underestimate  

Before the outbreak of the ongoing war, Israel and the US had underestimated Iran's strong underground defense architecture capable of withstanding even powerful bunker-buster munitions. Despite the claim of the US and Israel that Iran's nuclear enrichment centres were obliterated in June 2025 bombings, intelligence sources have revealed that the uranium canisters are largely safe in the underground vaults, with damage limited to surface structures and protective cover of the entrances. Furthermore, thousands of underground missile silos appear to have been saved from extensive aerial bombardment, challenging the narrative of their destruction. 

Now the fragile ceasefire for peace talks still holds, though tenuously, with sporadic but intense attacks by Israel against the Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. In view of the devastating bombardment in Beirut and other locations of Lebanon, Iran has threatened to abandon the ceasefire and retaliate if Israel continues these attacks, while the US and Israel refuse to include a ceasefire in Lebanon as an extension of the current armistice. Iran considers Hezbollah of Lebanon and Houthis of Yemen as part of its regional allies. Contributing to further escalation, the USA has declared a counterblockade against all vessels entering or exiting Iranian ports along the Strait of Hormuz. However, analysts say that the US blockade is likely to harm its own allies more than it does Iran and its strategic partners, because of the energy security threat it poses. 

Iranians say that the closure of Hormuz will not severely impact their export and import trade, citing the existence of alternative operational trade routes. Even under international sanctions, Iran is doing robust business with friendly international partners. It maintains international trade with Azerbaijan and Russia using the Caspian Sea, entirely bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also operates substantial trade with Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan, utilising road and railway corridors beyond the available maritime routes.

Similarly, the International North South Transport Corridor (INCTC) connecting Bandar Abbas in Iran with Moscow in Russia through Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan provides it with optional trade corridors helping it keep its economy alive even when the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. If push comes to shove, Iran can also use its Chabahar Port and Gwadar Port of Pakistan, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz to keep its trade flow intact. So bringing Iran to its knees through blockade is a complicated proposition. 

According to analysts, this 'double blockade'- where Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz and the US has imposed a blockade around the Iranian ports along the Hormuz-  is likely to hike gas prices in the US, raise the cost of food in the Persian Gulf and severely disrupt the supply of fertilizers. While the blockade is intended to cause pain to Iran, this country has shown an unusual resilience and endurance despite the massive destruction of infrastructure and the loss of thousands of people. 

Economic disruption

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has brought massive economic disruption, triggering unprecedented fuel scarcity and price rise around the world. Despite overwhelming economic pressure, however, Iran has shown no sign of weakness. Credible geopolitical analysts are saying that the closure of this critical sea lane will affect Europe and America more than Iran.  Fareed Zakaria corroborates it in his global briefing, quoting James Stavridis, a retired US Navy Admiral, as saying, "A complete shutdown could have profoundly negative consequences for the US geopolitically." The satellite images circulating in social media posts capturing pictures of Iranian IRGC soldiers actively recovering buried missile launchers from under the ground further validate this observation. 

The current conflict in West Asia has driven the belligerents to a state of desperation, where any further escalation may lead the global system to an unprecedented state of chaos. Given the perilous trajectory they are in, both the belligerent parties must exercise extreme caution not to take further steps toward using lethal weapons of mass destruction triggering a global war and pushing humanity to an existential precipice. The best course of action for the present moment will be to freeze hostilities and give diplomacy a chance to formulate an agreeable framework for mutual coexistence. 

(Dr. Bharadwaj is a former ambassador and former chairperson of Gorkhapatra Corporation.bharadwajnarad@gmail.com.)