AI Is Influencing International Relations

Historian Yuval Noah Harari, in his book, '21 Lessons for the 21st Century,' discusses three pressing issues: nuclear proliferation, climate change, and artificial intelligence (AI). Out of these prominent issues, AI is the most debated and rapidly evolving topic, making it challenging to predict its causes and consequences across various sectors and disciplines, including international relations (IR). AI has been steadily gaining importance since the 2010s, and even more so in the 2020s. The potential applications of generative AI models, particularly ChatGPT, have revitalised an ongoing debate in IR. The renewed interest has resulted in a surge of global, regional, and national initiatives focused on AI governance, which includes AI ethics, responsible AI practices, AI risks, and AI safety. 

In the early 2000s, when IR began to consider AI technologies, discussions primarily centred on warfare and the security domain. As AI is increasingly employed for the surveillance of individuals under the guise of state security, one is reminded of George Orwell's dystopian novel 1984, which emphasises the concept of "Big Brother is watching you," a notion closely associated with totalitarian governments. Most of the scholars claim that AI often undermines individual privacy and freedom, putting democratic values at the point of no return. Countries must develop their own capabilities as they participate in the AI race. This scenario places many nations in a disadvantageous position. It presents a considerable challenge for poorer countries competing against those with extensive experience and well-established research and development institutions. 

Geopolitics

Given the current rise of geopolitics, AI serves as a tool for accumulating and projecting power. As power politics becomes more prominent, we may find ourselves immersed in Thomas Hobbes's concept of the "state of nature," which is characterised by an absence of authority to regulate human behaviour. The USA currently has over two thousand companies involved in the AI industry. State-supported initiatives have positioned China at the forefront of innovation, leading many to believe that the country could become the world's leading AI expert by 2030. Robust infrastructure and financial capacity enable both countries to invest heavily in research and development. In the realm of IR, this scenario creates a unipolar or bipolar world where these two global powers, representing the East and West, influence the rules of international politics, much like they do on a limited scale today. 

AI now holds potential in international relations comparable to the nuclear power competition during the Cold War. At a practical level, AI can assist diplomats in managing the growing volume of information by identifying patterns and insights that enhance the decision-making process. Another potential application involves 'running scenarios,' in which various strategies and possibilities are input into an AI system that calculates potential outcomes. Recognising the significance of this subject, the United Nations has begun to convene discussions on the global nature and implications of AI. 

This topic is also actively debated by IR scholars who often collaborate across international borders. With the rise of AI and social media, states and individuals are increasingly engaging in disinformation and propaganda to promote their interests. One of the most emblematic examples of this phenomenon is deepfakes: the alteration of elements in videos to create new, synthetic media. By utilising techniques from machine learning and AI, deepfakes can convincingly make anyone appear to say or do something they never actually did. Deepfakes pose significant risks, including the spread of fake news, revenge porn, and hoaxes. Beyond their alarming implications for both domestic and international politics, deepfakes have deeply personal consequences for individuals, particularly for women who become victims of nonconsensual pornography that exploits their likeness. Hence, several political leaders and IR scholars have voiced concerns about the deployment of AI on human populations. 

According to Vernor Vinge's concept of a singularity, the purportedly unavoidable moment when machine intelligence eclipses human intelligence, humanity is doomed. Despite widespread dismissal as mere dystopian science fiction, it is important to remember that AI progressed from chess to autonomous driving in merely two decades. A mere fifty years could be sufficient for AI to progress towards the singularity. In the coming years, the singularity and widespread proliferation of AI will undoubtedly remain a central concern in IR if technological advancement persists on this trajectory. 

Apart from concerns about privacy and the future of humanity, one immediate economic implication of AI is particularly worrying for individuals. Most projections suggest that millions may be out of work in the coming years as companies replace human workers with AI systems. This trend impacts both blue-collar and white-collar jobs. AI is advancing most rapidly in countries that already possess strong economic and technological foundations. These nations are likely to achieve automation first and produce at such a rate that traditional factories cannot compete, resulting in increased wealth flowing into these countries by bringing greater international economic inequality. Within individual countries, vulnerable citizens are often the first to be impacted. 

Economic implications 

The economic implications of AI are of particular importance to India, a country with the youngest workforce in the world and deep-seated economic inequalities. As India navigates the complexities of the AI landscape, it must find ways to engage with other nations on an international scale while protecting the interests of its citizens. At this point in history, the rise of AI as a leading technological force appears inevitable. This makes it increasingly difficult to determine the impact of AI on international relations. However, some broad patterns are beginning to emerge. 

Similar to the space race or nuclear proliferation, the quest for dominant AI power might establish a fundamentally new framework for international relationships. Public perception and concerns regarding technology are likely to constrain state agencies, which will face the choice of accommodating or overriding their populations. As more public figures voice their opinions on the advantages and disadvantages of AI, this technology is poised to capture global attention and prompt international governing bodies to develop policies concerning AI ethics. It's obvious that AI has already entered the realm of international relations; however, the question remains: how and to what extent?

(Rashid is pursuing a master's degree in international relations and B.K. is a PhD scholar at Sichuan University, China.)