Carney Owes Thanks To Trump

Voters in Canada have given a strong message to their next-door neighbour, the United States, that they take lying down any berating by even a superpower disrespectful of their pride and national identity. Washington’s slight and Carney’s tough retaliatory stance created a new agenda and enabled the Liberals to retain power, even if a couple of seats short of a clear majority on its own. 

In a stunning turnaround, Prime Minister Marc Carney’s Liberal Party has won the April 28 general elections to the 343-seat parliament, unlike the situation as late as January when opinion polls gave a 20 percentage points lead to the opposition, Conservatives headed by Pierre Poilievre. Interestingly, Carney has just made his debut as an MP, having never been a parliamentarian previously. He landed as the head of the government first and followed the opportunity to contest and win a parliamentary election. In fact, his election as party chief itself was a certainty that the nation of 41 million would be voting for a new parliament. 

Canadian voters wanted a leader who could stand tough and inspire confidence that the sovereign existence of their land would not be compromised or go disdained without a fight. As soon as he was sworn in as premier, Carney, 60, gave the message that he meant business when handling Trump’s aggressive posturing. The former governor of the Bank of Canada (2008-13) and Bank of England (2013-20) announced that he would not visit the White House until Washington was prepared to accord his country the respect deserving an independent, sovereign member of the United Nations. He wants to lead a G7 fight back on Trump’s tariff war. 

Trump to thank for

The Canadian premier has Donald Trump to thank for, as the American president offered him an opportunity to display his leadership quality in a crisis of the nation’s credibility caused by the next-door nation’s badmouthing. Trump had on a series of occasions invited, warned and even threatened Canada to be prepared for merging with the United States as the long-awaited 51st state. Silence over Trump’s tirade would have deepened the national humiliation. Carney rose to the occasion by strongly blunting the Trumpian onslaught. His Canada-for-Canadians-campaign raised his political stock within weeks. Latest reports indicate that a large number of Canadians are avoiding US travel and showing restraint in buying American consumer goods, which goes to show the latest situation. 

Shortly after being elected prime minister in March, Carney called for snap polls with the hope of strengthening popular mandate and gearing for a trade war triggered by the Trump administration that made a drastic departure from its traditional policy of reassuring allies. Carney took the leadership mantle after Justin Trudeau decided to step down in January in the wake of the party’s fast-falling public approval ratings, and the majority of his party members wanted someone exuding confidence to head the government. 

Shocked at Washington’s intimidating attitude after all these decades of working closely in virtually every front, Canadians wanted strong leadership at the helm of state affairs. In his announcement of the election, the Conservative Party leader asked voters for “a strong, positive mandate to deal with President Trump”. The Trump team might have realised that the new prime minister was made of sterner stuff than it had taken for granted. Canadian voters backed Carney as the leader who could steer the country to an even keel, even as the world witnessed an emerging new order, aggravated by Trump’s heckling for all the international community to hear and see. 

Enough was enough, and hence the verdict to turn the tide of earlier opinion polls and retain the Liberals in power.   Now, the ball is in the newly mandated government’s court to prove its mettle in meeting the immediate challenges, including the economy and defence needs. Armed with a new mandate, Carney’s line with the US is clearly drawn. His tone can be gauged from what he said at the time of the election date announcement: “President Trump claims that Canada isn’t a real country. He wants to break us… We will not let that happen.”

A fortnight before the election date, Carney regretted the genocide in Gaza and imposed weapons sanctions against Israel. Canadians greeted the step as courageous, siding with humanity. His victory message is as much to Canadian voters as it is to the US and the rest of the world. Blowing hot in haste today and standing cold tomorrow would eat into a country’s credibility. 

Defence strategies and economic partnership require Carney’s top priorities — a situation primarily accelerated by Trumpism that spares hardly any country, including major European powers and the Five Eyes, known for their Anglo-Saxon English populations dominating local politics. Washington is perhaps the closest to London, among its allies of the Western kind.

Defence share

Carney could steer Canada to a new defence agenda in coordination with the leading powers of Europe, unlike previously, when it relied too heavily on the US. Several prominent European leaders from NATO member states have begun making public calls for significantly reducing their overwhelming reliance on the US. 

Washington has long expressed dismay over Europe not chipping in to expand NATO's defence budget but expecting the US to fill the deficit. Louder than his predecessors in raising this point, Trump threatens to scale back American troops' posturing and pattern of military base activity if Europe continues to be non-responsive to make its expected contributions to NATO’s defence budget.

Germany and France are putting a new emphasis on increasing their share in the expansion of defence budget. Carney’s government, too, is weighing the opportunity to new commitments with Europe for cooperation in key areas so that alternative avenues are probed and tapped. The rich and the strong are worried that their influence might weaken their economy and create challenging conditions in the new political landscape. 

Although Canada is in the exclusive club of the world’s richest, the humiliating darts that Trump has been aiming at it several times in less than four months, including the threat, or taunt, to have Carney’s country as the 51st state of the US, have renewed nationalist fervour among his people. In short, the Carney-led Liberal Party’s latest electoral victory carries a clear message that Canadians are assertive about their national pride and are prepared to confront Trump’s uncalled-for rhetoric.

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)