Harnessing Demographic Diversity

In a world grappling with population growth, climate change, disaster, pandemic, migration and human displacement, it is crucial to understand how the demographic diversity is shaped by social, cultural, economic, and political contexts, and the subsequent implications in sustainable development. More specifically, evolving demographic diversity will have significant impacts on health systems, education, household economy, urban development, and social protection services.    

Over time, societies have made significant progress in collecting population data, analysis and use. The population figures disaggregated by age, ethnicity, and gender will help better understand the diversity of our societies at large. However, the data related to socially excluded and marginalised populations are still under-represented in many low-income countries, thereby having profound impacts on their lives and well-being. 

Strategies 

No doubt that population data systems are instrumental in developing more realistic health and population policies, strategies and plans for implementation in many countries. In order to leave no one behind, we need to count everyone to recognise human diversity and promote rights-based approach to development. Harnessing demographic diversity is crucial to achieve the ambitious goal of sustainable human development.  According to United Nations, the world’s population is expected to increase nearly 2 billion persons in the next 30 years, from the current 8 billion to 9.7 billion in 2050 and could peak at nearly 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s. Global population growth has been a matter of concern as it is more concentrated among world’s low-income countries. 

In this context, China and India remain the most populous countries, each representing nearly 18 per cent of the world’s population. Notably, Africa is the fastest growing continent. It is estimated that he population of sub-Saharan Africa is projected to double by 2050. On the other side, shrinking population in Europe is a sharp contrast.  According to National Population and Housing Census - 2021, Nepal’s population is 29.2 million which is up from 26.5 million in 2011. Interestingly, the growth rate has declined steadily from 2.3 per cent in 2001 to 0.9 per cent in 2021 due to a declining fertility rate and an increase in migration abroad. 

While capitalising demographic dividend is a prime challenge, the prominent issues of maternal mortality, adolescent fertility, child marriage, experience of gender-based violence, access to family planning services, and sexual and reproductive health services need to be realistically addressed in health and population policies in the federal context. Among other socio-demographic variables, data on disability, and sexual and gender minorities were also considered in the national census.  Approximately 1.5 per cent of youths aged 15 to 39 years, as well as youths aged 15 to 24 years, reported some form of disability, with physical disability being the most common type recorded. 

Again, the population growth, significant changes in fertility and life expectancies will have far-reaching implications for generations to come. Furthermore, high level of urbanisation and accelerating migration have several implications in socio-cultural and economic development. Several challenges of ensuring universal access to health care, education, food and nutrition, housing, water, sanitation, housing and social protection services for those who are poor and socially marginalised.  

The 2024 edition of United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) flagship report "The State of World Population" underscores the ongoing impact of racism, sexism, and other forms of discrimination in obstructing significant progress in sexual and reproductive health for women and girls. It further reports that women and girls who are poor, belong to ethnic, racial, and indigenous minority groups, or are trapped in conflict settings, are more likely to die due to lack of access to timely health care.

While demography is statistically oriented at large and concerned with factors defining population size, structure and their variations across time and space, there is emerging need to advance demographic anthropology which focuses on social organisations shaping the production and reproduction of human populations. The anthropological approach importantly seeks to explore wider dimensions of gender, culture and political economy surrounding human populations.  

It is worth noting to recall the landmark International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), held in Cairo in 1994 which focused people’s dignity and rights at the heart of sustainable development. The ICPD made a major emphasis on inclusive sustainable development through human rights, including reproductive rights, empowering women and girls, and addressing intersecting socio-cultural and political inequalities experienced by people for ages. 

Political commitments

While Nepal has important political commitments and declarations to implementing ICPD priorities, Ministry of Health and Population (MoHP) in collaboration with UNFPA and other partners convened National Population Conference on 23 September, 2023. This conference primarily aimed to analyse population dynamics and critically review the national efforts in meeting ICPD+25 commitments and prioritise the population polices and strategic actions in the federal context. 

Considering the emerging demographic shifts, Nepal’s evolving population structure including declining fertility rates will have profound effects on demographic dividend and population ageing. As a result, such demographic shifts will require more investments in maternal and child health, sexual and reproductive health, education, infrastructure, water and sanitation, and inclusive development. To sum up, demographic change within and across societies have significant implications for accelerating progress towards sustainable development. Local population policies need to consider demographic diversity and raise their investments in health, education, housing or infrastructure. For humanity to progress, the evolving population dynamics and demographic diversity will shape social, cultural, economic and political future of our diverse societies.    

(Bhandari is a health policy analyst.)