Monsoon enters eastern Nepal

By A Staff Reporter,Kathmandu, June 11: The monsoon system for 2024 arrived in Nepal in the eastern part of Koshi Province on Monday, three days earlier than the usual date. The usual date for monsoon arrival in Nepal is June 13. 

This year, the monsoon has entered Nepal three days earlier than the usual date. It is expected that the monsoon will gradually advance to other parts of Nepal in the coming days. Last year, the monsoon had entered Nepal one day later than the seasonal calendar.

According to Govinda Jha, a senior meteorologist at the Meteorological Forecasting Division of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, it would take around one week for the monsoon to spread throughout the country. Currently, the monsoon has spread throughout the Taplejung, Panchthar, Ilam, and Jhapa districts, which have been receiving light rains since the morning.

While the monsoon has started in Koshi Province, rain activities in other areas could be influenced by local and western winds, but it would be premature to call it the monsoon.

Jha said that the spread of monsoon depended on the western disturbance because as soon as its impact recedes in the western part of the country, the monsoon would become active from the eastern part and spread throughout the country.

Rainfall in the eastern parts of Koshi Province is indeed monsoonal. Due to the active influence of western winds in Gandaki Province, Lumbini, Karnali, and Sudurpaschim Province, the monsoon is unlikely to expand to these regions immediately.

The monsoon gradually moves from the Bay of Bengal and southern India through Myanmar, Kolkata, Sikkim, and Bangladesh before entering the eastern part of Nepal. Typically, the monsoon becomes active in Kerala, India, around June 1, and it takes about 13 days on average to reach Nepal.

This year, it is projected by the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) and the Meteorological Department that most areas in Nepal would experience average to above-average rainfall. The probability of above-average rainfall is estimated to be between 35 per cent to 55 per cent for most regions in Nepal.

Similarly, the department has said that the likelihood of average rainfall is between 35 per cent to 45 per cent in the southern parts of Koshi Province, Madhes Province, the southern parts of Bagmati Province, and some areas of Lumbini and Sudurpaschim Province. Meteorologists consider 90 per cent to 110 per cent of average rainfall as normal.

The monsoon season for Nepal and South Asia typically spans June, July, August, September and the first week of October. Based on the arrival and withdrawal of the monsoon, the department’s analysis shows that the active rainy period in Nepal averages 112 days.