Gandaki tops GDP growth rate estimates, Karnali comes last

Kathmandu, May 23: Among the seven provinces of the country, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Gandaki Province is projected to be highest in the current fiscal year. 

According to the Provincial GDP estimation for the current fiscal year 2023/24 made public by National Statistics Office (NSO) Wednesday, highest GDP in terms of consumer price of Gandaki Province is estimated to be 4.55 per cent, while Karnali Province will have the lowest growth at 3.39 per cent.

The growth rate of GDP in Lumbini Province is estimated to be 4.05 per cent, Bagmati Province 3.96 per cent, Madhes Province 3.78 per cent, Koshi Province 3.51 per cent and Sudupashchim Province at 3.41 per cent in the current fiscal year 2023/24.

In the current fiscal year 2023/24, the national annual GDP is estimated to be about Rs. 5,705 billion.

Earlier, the National Statistics Office (NSO) estimated that Nepal's economy would grow by 3.87 per cent in consumer prices for the current fiscal year.

According to the preliminary projection, the share of Bagmati Province to gross domestic product is 36.4 per cent, Koshi Province 15.8 per cent, Lumbini Province 14.3 per cent, Madhes Province 13.1 per cent, Gandaki Province 9.1 per cent, Sudurpashchim Province 7.1 per cent and Karnali Province 4.3 per cent.

According to the revised estimate of last fiscal year 2022/23, the provincial contribution to the GDP has changed marginally. 

Compared to last fiscal year, the contribution of Koshi Province, Madhes Province, Karnali and Sudurpashchim Province has marginally decreased while the contribution of the rest of the provinces has marginally increased, according to NSO.

The Koshi Province's GDP at consumer prices for the current fiscal year 2023/24 is estimated to be around Rs. 903 billion, while Madhes Province’s is estimated to be around Rs. 748 billion.

Similarly, the GDP of Bagmati Province for the current fiscal year 2023/24 is estimated to be at about Rs. 2,057 billion, Gandaki Province at Rs. 517 billion, Lumbini Province at Rs. 814 billion, Karnali Province at Rs. 244 billion and Sudurpashchim Province at Rs. 404 billion.

Looking at the economic activities according to industrial classification, the contribution of agriculture sector is the highest in all provinces except Bagmati Province, where the contribution of wholesale and retail trade sector is the highest.

In the current fiscal year, the business sector, which occupies the second largest share at the national level, also occupies the second position in Madhes Province.

Similarly, in Bagmati Province, the share of real estate transactions and housing services is in second position. 

According to the industrial classification of the current fiscal year 2023/24, the gross value-added growth rate of the industrial sector is initially estimated to be the highest (21.84 per cent) in accommodation and food services at the national level, and the highest growth rate of all other provinces except Lumbini Province is initially estimated to be in this sector.

The growth rate of electricity sector is highest in Lumbini Province. 

Similarly, the growth rate of the manufacturing sector is the lowest in Sudurpashchim and Koshi provinces, while the growth rate of the construction sector is the lowest in other provinces. 

The growth rate of construction sector is negative in all provinces, while the growth rate of manufacturing industry sector is negative in other provinces except Karnali Province, said the NSO. 

At the national level as well, the growth rate of these two sectors is initially estimated to be negative.

Highest per capita GDP in Bagmati Province 

In the current fiscal year 2023/24, the per capita GDP is estimated to be the highest in Bagmati Province and the lowest in Madhes Province. 

In the last year 2022/23 as well, as per revised estimate per capita gross domestic product will be the highest in Bagmati Province and the lowest in Madhes Province.

In the current fiscal year 2023/24, per capita GDP in US dollars is estimated to be 2,484 in Bagmati Province, 1,557 in Gandaki Province, 1,336 in Koshi Province, 1,159 in Lumbini Province, 1,111 in Sudurpashchim Province, 1,066 in Karnali Province and 892 in Madhes Province.

For the current fiscal year, the per capita GDP at the national level is tentatively estimated to be USD 1,434. 

In this way, it seems that the per capita GDP of other provinces except Bagmati and Gandaki provinces is lower than the national average.