India Hosts Mammoth Democratic Exercise

India's six-week long general election scheduled for seven phases that kicked off on April 11   has seen the completion of two phases with the voting on April 26. The third phase of voting will be held on May 7 and poll results, according to the reports, are due on June 4, 2024. Needless to say, India’s national elections are a mammoth exercise in democracy and logistics that take long duration to complete and produce results.  According to the Election Commission of India calculations, about 968 million people are eligible to vote in the polls – more than the populations of the United States, the European Union and Russia combined. 

All the votes from the country’s 28 states and eight union territories will be counted and results will be released most probably on June 4 under a multi-party, first-past-the-post system. Indians vote to fill 543 of 545 seats in the lower house of parliament which is called the Lok Sabha. Two other seats are filled by nominees of the country’s head of the state – president – on the recommendation of the ruling government. The political party that wins majority seats in the elections is mandated to form the government and appoint one of its winning candidates as prime minister of the country. According to the poll predictions and media analysis, Indian Prime minister Narendra Modi and his BJP remain popular among the Indian voters. Prime Minister Modi, according to CNN reports and calculations of India’s psephologists like Prashant Kishore, is expected to secure mandate for another five years in power. 

Alliance

He was first elected as prime minister in 2014 with a thumping majority on a forceful agenda of development and anti-corruption. He is credited with implementing welfare and social reforms, and easily secured a second term in the elections held in 2019. In that election more than 67 per cent of Indians had cast their ballot – one of the highest voter turnout in the country’s history. As in the previous polls, the main challenger to the BJP is the Indian National Congress, which has governed the country for much of the 77 years since independence. In an effort to prevent another Modi win, the Congress has forged an alliance with other opposition parties, including major regional parties. The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, or INDIA, launched its campaign during the previous month on a platform of “saving democracy”.

Political scion of India’s foremost leaders Jawahar Lal Nehru and Indira Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi is the face of the Congress party but other key figures include popular leader of the Aam Aadmi Party and Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal. There are also regional heavyweights such as the West Bengal chief minister and All India Trinamool Congress’ Mamata Banerjee and the south’s Tamil Nadu chief minister Muthuvel Karunanidhi Stalin, who will be vying to block a BJP takeover in their respective states where Modi is yet to break through.

However, several prominent members of the opposition, including Delhi chief minister Kejriwal, have been arrested or investigated by state agencies which has been alleged as politically motivated. The Congress had its bank accounts frozen by federal tax authorities and it was asked to pay a further $218 million in taxes. However, the BJP has denied political interference. In any case another victory for PM Modi would cement his place as one of India’s most important and longest-serving leaders. PM Modi’s party and its allies are aiming to win more than 400 seats in the Lok Sabha. That figure will also improve its absolute majority secured in 2019 when the BJP won 303 seats.

PM Modi’s supporters point to his economic record as exemplary. India is poised to become a 21st-century powerhouse as its economy rapidly grows. They say his presence on the world stage – including hosting the G20 – has projected the country as a modern global power, along with a history-making Chandrayan’s moon landing. Modi has also delivered on many of his key promises, with inauguration of the controversial Ram Janmabhoomi Mandir, a Hindu temple in the holy city of Ayodhya that was built on the site of the destroyed Babri mosque. 

But while India’s economy is rising, it is alleged that the world’s most populous country has failed to generate enough jobs for the millions of young people struggling to enter the workforce. According to the statistics, unemployment among 20- to 24-year-olds was a staggering 44.4 per cent at the end of 2023. Farmers have also emerged as the biggest threat to the ruling party in recent years. They have been taking to the streets to demand stronger protection of their economic welfare including higher fixed prices for their crops. Agriculture is the primary source of livelihood for about 55 per cent of India’s population and farmers have previously had success forcing PM Modi into repealing unpopular agriculture policies.

Cost of the poll

India’s election is, according to a study, believed to be the world’s most expensive, even outstripping US presidential elections. In 2019, political parties, candidates and regulatory bodies spent up to $8.6 billion, according to the Delhi-based Centre for Media Studies. This year, spending is expected to surge past previous records. When India conducted its first election in 1951-52, it took the Election Commission 68 phases to complete the electoral exercise. At the time, it cost the country Rs 10.5 crore to organise the Lok Sabha election.

Since then, with each election and the rise in the number of eligible voters, the cost of the poll has also increased significantly. In 2014, the year Narendra Modi was elected, the cost of the Lok Sabha election was Rs 3,870 crore. And, if a report published by New Delhi-based Centre for Media Studies is to be believed, then the cost of the polls in 2019 was a whopping Rs 50,000 crore ($7 billion). This surpasses approximately $6.5 billion that was spent during the 2016 US presidential election.

(The author is presently associated with Policy Research Institute (PRI) as a senior research fellow.  rijalmukti@gmail.com)