Gandaki to lead in GDP growth, Bagmati in per capita term

Kathmandu, May 27: Gandaki Province is estimated to record the highest economic growth among Nepal’s seven provinces in the current fiscal year 2024/25.

While the national gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate at purchasers' price is estimated at 4.61 per cent, Gandaki Province is expected to outperform all other provinces with a growth rate of 5.51 per cent, according to the Provincial Gross Domestic Product estimation for the current fiscal year 2024/25 made public by National Statistics Office (NSO) Monday.

Following Gandaki, Bagmati Province is projected to grow by 5.18 per cent, Karnali by 4.74 per cent, Lumbini by 4.7 per cent, and Madhes Province by 4.5 per cent. 

Koshi Province and Sudurpashchim Province are estimated to register the lowest growth rates at 3.34 and 3.32 per cent, respectively. 

In the current fiscal year 2024/25, the national annual gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to be about Rs. 6,107 billion.

Earlier, the National Statistics Office (NSO) estimated that Nepal's economic growth will grow by 4.61 per cent in purchaser's price for the current fiscal year.

Bagmati contributes 36.52% to national GDP

The share of Bagmati Province to the national GDP is estimated to be the highest among all provinces while Karnali will have the lowest in the current fiscal year. 

According to the preliminary estimation, the share of Bagmati Province to gross domestic product is 36.52 per cent, Koshi Province 15.90 per cent, Lumbini Province 14.23 per cent, Madhes Province 13.16 per cent, Gandaki Province 8.98 per cent, Sudurpashchim Province 7.03 per cent and Karnali Province 4.19 per cent.

According to the revised estimate of last fiscal year 2023/24, the provincial contribution to the GDP has changed marginally. 

Compared to last fiscal year, the contribution of Bagmati and Madhes Province has marginally increased while the contribution of Koshi, Gandaki, Lumbini, Karnali and Sudurpashchim Province has marginally increased, according to NSO. 

The Koshi Province's gross domestic product at purchasers' price for the current fiscal year 2024/25 is estimated to be around Rs. 971 billion, Madhes Province at Rs. 804 billion and Bagmati Province at Rs. 2,230 billion.

Similarly, Gandaki Province GDP is estimated to be around Rs. 548 billion, Lumbini Province Rs. 869 billion, Karnali Province Rs. 256 billion and Sudurpashchim Province Rs. 430 billion.

All sectors in all provinces post positive growth

In the fiscal year 2024/25, the growth rate of all sectors in all provinces appears to be positive, said the NSO. 

Looking at the economic activities according to industrial classification, the contribution of agriculture sector is the highest in all provinces except Bagmati Province, while the contribution of wholesale and retail trade sector is highest in Bagmati Province.

In the current fiscal year, the business sector, which occupies the second largest share at the national level, also occupies the second position in Madhes Province.

Similarly, in Bagmati Province, the share of real estate-related transaction services is in second place. 

In Gandaki, Lumbini, Karnali and Sudurpashchim Province, the contribution of public administration and defense sectors is in second place. 

The contribution of administrative support services activities to the gross domestic product of all provinces except Bagmati, Madhes and Karnali Provinces is the lowest.

Activities related to water supply and waste management in Bagmati, and mining and quarrying activities in Madhes and Karnali provinces appear to have the lowest contribution to GDP.

According to the industrial classification for the current fiscal year, the gross value-added growth rate of the industrial sector is initially estimated to be the highest in electricity and gas (13.82 per cent) at the national level, while it is initially estimated that this sector will have the highest growth rate in all provinces except Lumbini and Karnali provinces. 

In Lumbini and Karnali Province, the growth rate of the transport and storage sector is seen to be the highest. 

Similarly, the growth rate of the mining and quarrying sector in Bagmati, Lumbini and Karnali Province, water supply, sewage, waste management in Koshi and Sudurpashchim Province, education in Madhes Province and public administration and defense in Gandaki Province are seen to be the lowest.

Highest per capita GDP in Bagmati Province In the current fiscal year 2024/25, the per capita GDP is estimated to be the highest in Bagmati Province and the lowest in Madhes Province. 

In the last fiscal year 2023/24 as well, revised estimates indicate that the per capita gross domestic product will be the highest in Bagmati Province and the lowest in Madhes Province.

In the current fiscal year 2024/25, per capita GDP is estimated to be USD 2,602 in Bagmati Province, USD 1,619 in Gandaki Province, USD 1,401 in Koshi Province, USD 1,201 in Lumbini Province, USD 1,153 in Sudurpashchim Province, USD 1,089 in Karnali Province and USD 932 in Madhes Province.

For the current fiscal year, the per capita GDP at the national level is tentatively estimated to be USD 1,496. 

In this way, it seems that the per capita GDP of other provinces except Bagmati and Gandaki provinces is lower than the national average.