Beijing, New Delhi Resetting Ties

It is too early to declare definitively whether it is dawn or dusk on the Sino-Indian borders. But latest signs since last summer narrate a story of the earliest signs of thaw in Nepal’s two giant neighbours, China and India, whose combined population represents 35 per cent of the world’s total. The thrust is on diplomatic engagement in deference to the clearly emerging new world order. The United States has already declared by its actions that a significant part of its future is in the Indo-Pacific region. The area will preoccupy its attention and resources directed at retaining world dominance for decades to come.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s longtime security advisor Ajit Doval flew to Beijing in December for talks with Foreign Minister Yi. An outcome was a six-point agreement that included a pledge to maintain in their borders “peace and tranquility”. The news media termed Mansarovar pilgrimage route to the sacred Mount Kailash through Sikkim’s Nathula Pass “the takeaway” for New Delhi, considering the manner in which the Indian media elated over the breakthrough of sorts.

Travel to Kailash-Mansarovar had halted since 2020 in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent border clashes. Beijing did not move to renew the arrangement for the travel that many Hindus, Buddhists and Jains would like to make, as Mount Kailash, in China’s Tibet Autonomous Region, is revered as Lord Shiva’s abode. 

Bilateral ties

During the 23rd meeting of the Special Representatives on the China-India boundary question, it was decided that both sides would promote cross-border river cooperation and Nathula border trade. Doval and Yi agreed to “positively evaluate the solution reached between the two countries on border issues” and reiterated the “implementation work should continue”. The six-point consensus put special focus on the resolution pertaining to border issues. In fact, in the course of an October meeting between President Xi Jinping and Modi at the 16th BRICS summit at the Russian city of Kazan had paved way for the framework of reaching the subsequent agreement in December.

New Delhi soon announced that the two neighbours had decided to station their troops where they were before Galwan. India’s external affairs ministry explained that the two leaders had put emphasis on “the management of peace and tranquility in border areas and to explore a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable solution to the boundary question”. The latest turn of events points out that both sides desire to give momentum to addressing thorny issues that have affected their bilateral ties since long and, concurrently. The two sides want to give an impetus to their trade and other avenues of bilateral cooperation. This is underscored by the decision made for the special representatives to meet in India sometime this year.  

Speculation is that Moscow might have briefed the Indian government on its world view and emerging power equations vis-a-vis the West and China. China is the next world No. 1 economy that has begun to outpace or close the gap with the US on technological advances and military power. The December development between Beijing and New Delhi was received with positive vibes by the Indian press, notably The Times of India, which hailed it as a “major boost in bilateral relations”. 

Recent events and exchange between landlocked Nepal’s two most-populous economies and among the major military and industrial powers give ground to suggestions that Beijing and New Delhi are renewing efforts at a gradual improvement in their relationship. First, it was a memorandum of understanding signed between Thimpu and Beijing—something that came about after more than 25 years of efforts. This is to be seen against the background that India, under an agreement since the British days in the region, which independent India renewed as a treaty of peace and friendship in 1949. 

In the latest exchange, Beijing and New Delhi reviewed the potential for accelerating their trade and cooperation in various mutually beneficial spheres. This comes at a time when European countries are getting increasingly uneasy about the unilateral initiatives the US under President Donald Trump has been taking. They bear the brunt of the fallout, for which their own people are getting critical and expressing so with greater frequency and heightened volume. When combined, the two neighbours can extract dazzling results. Five times bigger than India’s, China’s economy, technological advances and a relatively patient foreign policy drive has attracted favourable global attention, especially in the past decade. 

Formidable prospects

China accounted for about a quarter of global GDP growth for 2012-2022 decade. But then Indian economy records a steady growth, being placed fifth in the world, with the likelihood of attaining the fourth spot by the 2030s. Coinciding with the aftermath of Covid-19 and the Ukraine war commencing in February 2022, most nations have become extra aware of the need for alternative avenues beyond their immediate regions and traditional alliances. With a combined population of more than 40 per cent of the world’s total and accounting for at least a third of the world economy, BRICS showcases the power of carefully constructed options. 

As such, Beijing and New Delhi are pushing for increasing diplomatic engagement towards a regular and effective line of communication and cooperation. The approach is pragmatic and comes as a new world order has already set in. Moreover, Russia stands keen on fostering ties with next-door China and India, which can create a formidable triangle from a geographically vantage point—an advantage with a greater potential than what the European Union shares with the US. India is well aware of the many leagues that China marches ahead of others in numerous fields just as Beijing does not overlook New Delhi’s growing power. 

This awareness should prod the two powers to engage in ways for easing tensions and boosting cooperation. Were the strategic interest not so, the US and its close allies would have exerted pressure on New Delhi to do their bidding on multiple fronts. In this, they would brandish their experts and obliging sections of the media in narrating how governance, cultural identity and bilateral cooperation are handled in which form and what shape—in a democracy. Recent events of sharp unease in the North-East region, particularly in Mizoram, Manipur and Darjeeling, are telltale signs of problems that the Modi government cannot be unaware of.

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)