Prediction About Solar Cycle Wrong: Scientists

Ekaterina Varfolomeeva

Scientists who forecast solar activity have admitted that their predictions for the current solar cycle are far from reality. Now researchers say we are rapidly approaching a more intense peak in solar activity. Earlier this year, Live Science reported that solar maximum will likely arrive earlier and be more powerful than expected. The Sun is constantly in motion and goes through alternating cycles of activity, including quiet periods known as solar minima, and peaks of solar activity, when dark sunspots and solar flares are observed. 

The current 25th solar cycle began in early 2019. Researchers at the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration's (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Centre (SWPC) previously predicted that solar activity would likely peak in 2025 and be less intense than the previous cycle 24. However, other solar scientists subsequently noticed that the actual solar activity differed from the SWPC forecasts. Live Science reported in June of this year that solar activity is increasing faster than expected, with some experts predicting peak solar activity will occur before the end of 2024.

On October 25, SWPC admitted for the first time that their initial forecasts were not accurate enough and were not suitable for use by clients such as private space exploration and satellite services companies. The updated forecast indicates that solar activity will increase faster and reach higher levels than originally expected, with solar activity likely to peak between January and October next year.

Several signs such as increase in the number of sunspots, powerful solar flares, aurora in lower latitudes and an increase in the temperature of the upper atmosphere, as well as air glow and the disappearance of clouds glowing at night, indicate that the current solar maximum will be more intense and occur earlier than expected. The reasons for the SWPC's inaccurate forecasts are not yet clear, and despite warning signs for years, scientists have taken time to update their predictions. 

For example, in 2020, a team of scientists used historical data on sunspots and the magnetic field to predict a more intense and earlier peak in solar activity. A stronger peak in solar activity could cause negative consequences on Earth, such as disruptions to radio communications, damage to energy infrastructure, radiation risks to passengers and astronauts, and problems with GPS satellites, even crashing, and the Internet.

 Ecologists also warn that a more intense solar maximum could confuse animals that use Earth's magnetic field to navigate, such as large whales and migratory birds. "We expect our new experimental forecast to be much more accurate than the team's forecast for 2019, and, unlike previous solar cycle forecasts, it will be continually updated monthly as new sunspot observations become available. This is quite a significant change," says Mark Misch, a physicist at the Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder and lead investigator of the SWPC.

To reduce uncertainty in forecasts for the remainder of solar cycle 25, SWPC is moving to a more flexible forecast system that will be updated regularly at the beginning of each month. This change is intended to provide more accurate forecasts and take into account new observations of solar activity.

- Pravda.ru