Race Begins For New PM

As the November 20 election vote count practically concluded, the race for government formation and who would be the next prime minister has heated the nation’s politics. Since emerging as the biggest party, the Nepali Congress, which leads a five-party ruling coalition, has worked its way into creating a new government by retaining the current alliance. However, the Maoist Centre, which finished third in the recent election, has also declared its intention to head the next alliance-led administration. Maoist supremo Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda joined the race to become the next prime minister. He might secure considerable support from the CPN-Unified Socialist Party, which secured 10 seats but failed to become a national party after failing to clear the three per cent requirement in the proportional representation system.

The governing coalition failed to fulfil its pre-election seat projection and was unable to pass the key number of 138 out of 275 House of Representatives (HoR) seats, the simple majority threshold, to establish the government. As it has turned out, the coalition partners needed the support of fringe parties that contested elections on their own without being members of any electoral organisation. 

The Congress-headed alliance has sought newly created parties such as the Nepali Janamat Party and the Nepal Unmukti Party for assistance. If any of these parties join the alliance, the governing coalition will have an easy ride of forming the next government.

UML’s manoeuvring

While the governing coalition looks to be the most natural entity to create the next government, the major opposition, the CPN-UML, which achieved the second slot by claiming 44 HoR seats and roughly 34 PR seats, has also participated in all forms of manoeuvring to form the next government. The UML had set up an electoral coalition with the RPP, a pro-royalist and pro-Hindu party, and the Janata Samajbadi Party, a pro-Madhes party.

The seats secured by the UML-led coalition, however, are insufficient for the party to form the next government. To increase its prospects of creating a government, the UML needs the cooperation of other left-wing parties, such as the Maoist Centre and the Unified Socialist. The Maoist Centre said a few days ago that it was open to all alternatives for forming the next government, an apparent ploy to put pressure on the current coalition to grant the party the PM's chair. However, the party swiftly withdrew the remark, claiming to remain a vital component of the government's coalition.

The Maoist Centre and Unified Socialist are unlikely to back the UML since the senior brass of the two parties has a deeply running animosity with UML chief KP Sharma Oli. Meanwhile, the two parties have pledged not to destabilise the current government coalition. This overall circumstance makes it impossible for the UML to create the next government under its leadership.

Some political pundits feel that the Nepali Congress and the UML should create a working alliance to form the government in order to give the nation much-needed stability. In the present political scenario, this proposition looks to be far-fetched. If the Congress and UML decide to establish a government, the next parliament will be devoid of formidable opposition. A strong opposition is essential in a democracy to keep the government's authority in check. If the HoR arithmetic is any indication, the UML and its allies should play an active and important opposition role in the future parliament.

When discussing the role of the opposition in the next parliament, we must not overlook the appearance of a new group, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (National Independent Party), headed by TV anchor Rabi Lamichhane. Given its pre-election pledge, the party is less likely to form an alliance with conventional parties to form the next administration. The party will definitely have significant representation in the parliament having won seven seats under the FPTP system and about 11 under the PR system. 

The party's overwhelming interest will give it an advantage in the House. After achieving unexpected results with what the Swatantra Party dubbed its "pro-people agendas," Lamichhane and his fellow legislators, most of whom are young, would speak out loudly on people’s concerns. His party is expected to pose challenges to the new government and conventional party lawmakers in the House and in national politics. 

Meanwhile, the NC, the largest party in the next parliament, is divided about who will be the next prime minister. As per the recent talks, the party has currently six prime ministerial candidates. NC's Young Turk Gagan Thapa, senior leaders like Shekhar Koirala, Ram Chandra Paudel, Prakash Man Singh and Shashank Koirala are all eager to take the PM's seat. However, in order to become the next PM on the NC ticket, one must first become the NC parliamentary party leader, which requires the support of the majority of the newly-elected MPs.  These hopefuls lack the backing of the majority of NC legislators, with the exception of Prime Minister and party president Sher Bahadur Deuba.

Power-sharing 

They can only become the NC parliamentary party leader and ultimately the future Prime Minister if party president Deuba gives up his bid for new premiership. These challengers' hopes of becoming Prime Minister seem to have been crushed after Deuba declared his desire to head the future government as the leader of the existing alliance. Coalition party leaders trust Deuba more than any other NC leader.

Many political pundits feel the governing coalition would strike an agreement to form the government, most likely under the leadership of the NC's president. This time, they are likely to share the PM's chair on rotation, while sharing significant portfolios and constitutional positions, such as the election of the future President and Vice President, among their own coalition partners. Since the governing coalition partners campaigned on the promise of keeping the coalition together to build the new government, and the voter has given them a mandate to do so, breaking the alliance and siding with other parties to form the government would be an act of political dishonesty.

(Upadhyay is Managing Editor of this daily.)