Hira Bahadur Thapa

Whenever a new government comes to power or a new state emerges, the question of gaining international recognition assumes added significance. Such recognition is needed for enabling the government or state to access the external support and aid. Recognition from other states or governments provides any new government an opportunity to become a part of the larger international community.
The recent upheaval in Afghanistan leading to the hasty withdrawal of US and NATO forces from the country has brought the Taliban into power. This is an Islamist group that relies on the Islamic law known as Sharia law. The Taliban have come to power for the second time and have assuredly proclaimed that they would vie for moderation unlike to their previous rule despite their adherence to the Islamic way of living.

Wait and see
This promise from the triumphant Taliban is being tested given the fact that their first reign from 1996 to 2001 was not welcomed by a large majority of countries in view of their disregard for basic human rights, among others. All countries are still adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach before deciding on recognition. A few regional powers are apparently keen to cultivate the new rulers in furtherance of their parochial national interests.
Some key regional players like Qatar, Iran, Pakistan, Russia and China have demonstrated their inclination to deal with the Taliban short of explicit recognition. These countries are willing to help the Taliban avoid international pariah status. They have maintained their embassies at Kabul. They want to seize upon the opportunities to promote their national interests in the wake of American exit from Afghanistan.
Among them Russia and China are more enthusiastic to develop close relationship with the new rulers in a country where the US played a predominant role for two decades shouldering the responsibility of remaking the war-torn country.

From the Russian perspectives it is very interesting to see that its own proxy government in Kabul from 1979 to 1989 was toppled by the rival power which came after the epoch-making event of September 11, 2001 determined to root out terrorism and secure American interests. But to many’s dismay US-friendly Ghani government in Afghanistan collapsed failing to halt the Taliban advance even before a complete withdrawal of US and Western forces complying with 2020 US-Taliban peace agreement.

No wonder then that both Russia and China, the two permanent members of the UN Security Council, have in the latest UN meeting on Afghanistan raised the issue of potential humanitarian disaster in the midst of chaos and uncertainty in Kabul. Economically, the situation in the country is calamitous. The US government is declining to release the frozen Afghan central bank money totaling $8 billion deposited with Federal Reserve Bank. For Afghanistan the International Monetary Fund special drawing rights are suspended, the issuance of which would have provided the beleaguered country millions of US dollars to help revive its economy.
America’s foreign policy is undergoing a significant change in the aftermath of its ending of forever war in Afghanistan. It will likely influence its future policy vis-à-vis other countries around the world. The transformation is seen in the emergence of Biden Doctrine, which in essence, means a foreign policy that avoids the aggressive tactics of forever wars and nation building, while uniting allies against the authoritarianism of rising powers. China and Russia are rising powers and the key regional players of Afghanistan. Both of them are currently weighing the strategic and economic benefits of closer relations with the new administration in Kabul. It should not be surprising if they recognise the new rulers earlier than others.

President Biden was defining his new doctrine by declaring the end of an era of major military operations to remake other countries, offering what he said was a better way to protect American interests around the world through diplomacy, the military’s targeted counterterrorism abilities and forceful action when necessary. The Biden Doctrine has resurfaced in the withdrawal of Afghanistan and will influence America’s potential recognition of Taliban rule.
The world community’s dealing with the Taliban will depend much on big powers and regional players’ position on Afghanistan. President Biden’s one sentence may come to define future US-Afghanistan relationship, which is “It’s not a matter of trust, it’s a matter of mutual self-interest”.

The US and Afghanistan are constrained to cooperate with each other for pursuing their own self-interests because the US, now without any troops or allies will need on-the-ground intelligence and friendly forces to contain ISIS-K, the off shoot of Al Qaeda. In the same vein, the Taliban, still straining to consolidate control over the country’s many remote corners, may need American air power to help defeat the terrorist group. The mutual enemies create conditions of mutual cooperation between the US and Taliban. Additionally, without US lifting of economic sanctions and release of withheld assets, the Taliban will have insurmountable difficulties to avoid economic collapse.

China’s interest
China’s welcome of senior Taliban leader in Beijing in July indicated its growing interest in Afghanistan affairs. After Taliban takeover, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Hua Chunying on August 16 when asked by reporter about China’s potential recognition said, “We hope the Afghan Taliban can form solidarity with all factions and ethnic groups in Afghanistan and build a broad-based and inclusive political structure”. No doubt that today’s China has truly global interests.

Nonetheless, Afghanistan’s international acceptance will conspicuously hinge on UN’s recognition. It is worth recalling that UN declined to recognise the Taliban in their previous rule due to some legitimate concerns. Therefore, the Taliban should turn their promise of moderation into practice by fully respecting human rights before expecting recognition from the international community.

(Thapa was Foreign Policy Advisor to the Prime Minister from 2008-09. thapahira17@gmail.com)