Narayan Upadhyay

After the issue of holding three-tier elections cropped up recently, ruling party partners found themselves in a quandary. As the confusion over the dates of these elections persisted, some coalition members declared the next Nepali year - 2079 B.S.- will be the election year when the nation will go to the polls the whole hog. According to them, the next Nepali year will see elections at all 753 local levels, seven state assemblies, the federal parliament, or the House of Representatives.

A few days ago, the ruling dispensation appeared to be in two minds about whether it should hold first the federal parliament polls or the local elections. After the Election Commission urged the government to fix the date for local level elections, the coalition partners raised the conflicting provisions in the constitution and local level election laws. As per Article 225 of the constitution, the elections to the local bodies should be held within six months from the completion of the five-year term of the local level representatives, while Clause 3 of the local level election laws, 2073 BS states that the local elections should be held two months before the term of these representatives expires.

Hackles
Constitutional and legal experts suggested to the government associates that no laws could be above the constitution and its provisions. They should accord priority to the charter and make their decision to hold local level elections accordingly. The government is now in a mood to amend the law and then only hold the local level elections in the third week of September this year, which has raised the hackles of the main opposition, CPN-UML.

UML leaders, including its chair, have warned that they will not accept any deferral of local level elections. They have accused the ruling party of giving misleading explanations about Article 225. The UML's caveat might have come after the Election Commission had asked the government to fix the date for local elections for April 27 and May 5, 2022 (Baisakh 14 and 22, 2079 BS).
Members of the ruling parties contended that since the last local elections were in three phases stretching in five months, the confusion over the dates of the last local election has arisen. The country had held the last local elections in three phases- on May 14, June 28 and September 18 in 2017, while the elections for the federal parliament and state assemblies were held on November 26 and December 7, 2017.

Earlier, CPN- Maoist Centre chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda threw everyone off guard by proposing that elections for the federal parliament should be held first in April-May this year and that local elections should be deferred to later dates. Dahal's suggestion came because of the UML's continued obstructions to the parliament. To support his claim of holding the HoR election first, the Maoist chair stated that even the UML had wanted elections to the parliament, which was why the main opposition disrupted the House ever since the coalition government came to the helm some six months ago.

Dahal's recommendation, however, did not go down well with many. To hold an election to the HoR, the government must dissolve the parliament, which would go against the Supreme Court’s historic verdict. The SC categorically stated in its verdict that the House must complete its tenure. The court's decision has clearly put a break on any move to hold 'early parliamentary elections'. The parties in government, therefore, cannot terminate the House before it completes its full five-year term.

In the meantime, the constitution has granted the ruling parties at least six months of 'extra' periods after the House completes its term to hold parliamentary polls. There is all likelihood that the coalition partners can profit from this constitutional provision. If everything goes as planned, the ruling coalition may hold all polls towards September-October, coinciding with the Nepali months of Ashoj and Kartik 2079 BS. Suspecting that they would not complete preparations in time, the coalition companions wanted to delay these elections by applying the constitutional arrangements. They, however, cannot breach the charter, which may land them in statutory trouble, as the opposition party and its supporters would surely move to court.

Meanwhile, the ruling parties have announced that they would contest polls making seat arrangements. They want to work out on a share of seats for all three-tier elections. The five parties - the Nepali Congress, Maoist Centre, CPN (Unified-Socialist), Rastriya Janata Party and Rastriya Janmorcha - joined forces against the main opposition and largest party in the federal parliament, the UML and will give continuity to their alliance till elections. Since the UML chair had dissolved the House twice for his ill design of continuing in power, the alliance colleagues will stop him from returning to the government helm.

Continuity of coalition
For this, they will work to capitalise on constitutional provisions. It seems these parties may give continuity to the coalition government when they win the next elections.
Political analysts maintain the main opposition, under its current chair, will not achieve victory in three-tier elections. During the coming polls, Oli and his party will lack the votes of Maoist supporters, which they had secured during the last elections when the UML and the Maoist party contested elections jointly. Likewise, a reasonable number of erstwhile UML followers have also sided with Madhav Kumar Nepal's party, weakening the main opposition further.

Against this backdrop, the Nepali Congress, the largest partner in the coalition, has indeed fancied its chance of securing the largest number of seats in local, state assemblies and the HoR. Though many congressmen have communicated that the party should not ally for seats in three-tier polls, the party's president, Sher Bahadur Deuba, has reportedly made commitments to their coalition members to contest elections by keeping the coalition intact. NC and other coalition partners' commitments make them strong contenders to sweep the elections for which they must set favourable dates without flouting the charter's spirit and provisions.

(Upadhyay is Managing Editor at this daily. nara.upadhyay@gmail.com)