Ritu Raj Subedi

The rise and fall of former prime minister and CPN-UML chairman KP Sharma Oli provides an exciting case study not only for the students of political science but also those interested in Nepali communist movement. It entails a baggage of internal and external elements. In mid-February 2018, Oli shot to power with a bang. But his roller-coaster premiership ended with a whimper after three years. He displayed an excessive self-defeating hubris and indulged in a series of foreign policy miscalculations, resulting in his inescapable nemesis. He could have averted his early downfall and registered his name as one of the great prime ministers of Nepal, had he successfully completed his term in office. For this, he had to demonstrate a modicum of moderation and compromise with comrades of his own party to avoid nasty intra-party conflict and eventual dissolution of NCP.
Three crucial factors catapulted him to centre of national politics. One was his decisive role in promulgating the new constitution in 2015, second was his tough nationalist stand against the Indian blockade and the third was the landmark Transit and Transportation Agreement (TTA) with China, which could provide land-locked Nepal with greater strategic autonomy in reducing its economic and trade dependency on the southern neighbour. However, once in the helm of government, he gradually started to dismantle all these bases which had enabled him to secure resounding victory in the election. He dissolved the House of Representatives (HoR) twice, threatening to upend the federal democratic polity as envisaged by the 2015 constitution. The country has now plunged into uncharted political waters even though the reinstatement of the House by the Supreme Court has brought the constitution back on track.

Mistrust
Despite having a huge political mandate at home, Oli failed to leverage it to execute a balanced and independent foreign policy in dealing with the neighbours, big powers and major international agencies. It was an opportunity to infuse confidence into the nation’s diplomacy rendered ineffective under the successive weak governments in the past. At one point, the Oli government’s relations with India, China and the USA were marked by confusion and mistrust. By going against his own previous promises, he flip-flopped on his foreign policy. His flirtation with US Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) and a clear disdain for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) constituted the most bizarre part of his foreign policy fiasco.
As one of his advisors shared his views with this pen-pusher, Oli had shown little interest in implementing the landmark agreements signed with China during his visit to the northern neighbour in 2016 and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Nepal in 2019. In principle, Xi’s historic visit to Nepal has elevated Nepal-China relations to the level of ‘strategic partnership.’ In order to foster strategic friendship, both need to implement vital accords to their mutual benefit. The cross-border railway has been considered not only as a key to achieve this goal but also a game changer in the region’s development and geopolitics.
During the provincial and federal elections, virtually all political parties had sold the dream of Chinese rail to the voters. But today none is talking about it. Oli had fired the imagination of Nepalis when he said that his government would bring the Chinese rail from Kerung of Tibet to Kathmandu, and then to Pokhara and Lumbini. But in the hindsight, it can be said that his ‘railway dream’ was fanciful and merely a populist poll slogan for he failed to show political will and diplomatic acumen to negotiate with China on the investment modality for laying the track. He could have capitalised on fraternal relations subsisting between the communist parties of Nepal and China for decades to build the Trans-Himalayan Multi-dimensional Connectivity Network under the broader framework of BRI.
In December 2018, the Oli government hosted Asia Pacific Summit in Kathmandu amidst protest from different sections of the society. Chairperson for Unification Church Hak Ja Han presented Oli with $100,000 ‘Leadership and Good Governance Award’ of Universal Peace Federation (UPF). Oli’s acceptance of the award from a controversial INGO not only raised ethical question but it marked an ideological deviation of the then ruling NCP. The UPF has been criticised for promoting Christianity in Nepal and elsewhere. Similarly, Sun Myung Moon, who founded the Unification Church, was known for his global anti-communist activism.
There was a fading flash of Oli’s ‘nationalism’ when his government unveiled a new political map incorporating Nepali territories in far-west Nepal – Kalapani, Lipulek and Limpiyadhura – which have been occupied by India since 1960. However, the Oli government failed to pursue effective diplomacy to practically regain these places. Neither did he make a breakthrough in convincing India to accept the EPG report that seeks to revise the Nepal-India 1950 Peace and Friendship Treaty.
His most controversial act as the executive head was his midnight meeting with the Indian foreign intelligence chief Samant Goel. It triggered a firestorm of protests from inside and outside his own party. Oli and his advisors had not made public the details of the clandestine parley that occurred at a time when Oli’s relations with China had started to go sour. Nepal’s politics took a rightist turn following the Oli-Goel meeting. It has been wildly speculated that India backed Oli to dissolve the HoR in a clear bid to derail Nepal’s secular constitution which the pro-Hindu BJP government has not yet recognised.

Double standard
After being removed from the premiership, Oli has flip-flopped on MCC. While in power, he wanted to endorse it from the parliament at all cost but a strong protest from within the ruling NCP prevented it from getting through the House. A panel formed under former PM and senior party leader Jhala Nath Khanal suggested amending a number of objectionable provisions of MCC’s Nepal Compact but Oli ignored the committee’s recommendation to initiate talks with the US government to this end. Recently, he reportedly told the party’s central committee meeting that parliament should approve the MCC’s Nepal Compact only after revising its content. Oli’s U-turn over the MCC smacks of double standard and opportunism. The political leadership - be it in government or opposition - must show consistent, credible and confident approach to the nation’s foreign policy. Failure to do so weakens the nation’s sovereignty and image abroad.

(Deputy Executive Editor of The Rising Nepal, Subedi writes regularly on politics, foreign affairs and other contemporary issues. subedirituraj@yahoo.com)