Zhou Shengping

The honeymoon between two close neighbours Nepal and China was gone with the wind in March 2021 when the Nepal's Supreme Court announced the illegal status of Nepal Communist Party (NCP), nullifying the merger between CPN-UML and CPN-Maoist Centre in May 2018, a big haul for others who don’t like communism.
Formation of Nepali Congress president Sher Bahadur Deuba-led new government, replacing the Oli administration, forcing China to reflect upon its diplomacy to Nepal with communism as a main promoter, only to be a rope of sand. Due to the deteriorating international situation in troublesome times, Nepal and China will soon find they need other more than ever before. They have to hatch out a new type of bilateral relations where the ideology, the communist ideology exactly, has to take a back seat.
Nepal has two irremovable neighbours, India in the south and China in the north. Compared to the two giants, it is small and its survival is at risk. That’s why Prithvi Narayan Shah, the founding father of modern Nepal, said that Nepal is a yam between two boulders. Nearly three hundred years have passed, two neighbours are still there, like the nine-story tower in Kathmandu Dubar Square built by the king, but unlike the tower, the two neighbours have changed completely. China is now the second largest economy and is believed to replace the U.S. as the No. 1 power sooner or later, which is denied by China again and again, saying that China hasn’t such intention. Instead, China has always worked to safeguard world peace and preserve international order.

Ideal front
China is rising and the U.S. fears that its global dominance is consistently diminishing. Pounding away the so-called China threat, Western forces, led by America, are trying to encircle China by all means. Unfortunately, Nepal has been settled on as the ideal front to implement the encirclement, thanks to the about 1400-kilometre-long border enjoyed by Nepal and China’s Tibet. At the same time, another close neighbour India is not content with its influence limited in the sub-continent. “A great ship asks deep waters.” Narendra Modi-led government desires to be another super power, not in South Asia, but on earth, only second to the U.S.
Having a horror of China, India keeps the pot boiling, trying to make best us of Indo-Pacific Strategy designed by the U.S as a part of its containment. Unfortunately, again Nepal serves as a comfortable place for India to play its games. To survive in this tough world, Nepal used to play at see-saw, which meant to win balance between India and China. But nowadays, besides them, there are many other active players with increasing presence. Therefore, to learn how to defend the cross fire is in dire need.
How should Nepal choose at the crossroads? In bad shape there are two completely opposite fates awaiting this Himalayan nation. One negative future: from landlocked to landlocked. Another positive future: from landlocked to land-linked. The former shatters the dream of Nepali people, putting them between Scylla and Charybdis. The poor must pay for all.
To Nepal’s satisfaction, the positive future means Nepal has success with breaking through the crossfire and realising the national rejuvenation by becoming a real independent nation, a real great country in the world. To start against the behind-the-scenes enemies, Nepal should have the most clear-eyed adjustments to escape falling and getting crushed. As matters stand, threats for Nepal’s survival are haunting. Who are they? Where are they from? But its foreign policy is not as clear as before with a lot of superstitions and illusions in the minds of policy-makers.
Take One-China policy as an example. Nepal does a good job to uphold this policy, but it always looks forward to special reward for its adherence to One-China policy from China. The truth is that while China protects Tibet as its own territory, it also protects Nepal. Nepal’s survival has been guaranteed in an invisible way, so it is Nepal’s responsibility to safeguard Tibet as a part of China.

China’s challenges
How to deal with the Nepali Congress-led government seems a new challenge for China since it has been considered traditionally to be inclined towards India. The NC is itself not a problem for China. Firstly, this time-tested party is not China’s enemy and at the same time it is not India’s puppet. Second, CPN - Maoist Centre is a pillar of the new collation government. If the NC can join hands with Nepal’s communist party, it can also work together with Communist Party of China (CPC). Third, to strengthen cooperation with China will make the NC more popular and may help it win the next general election after 18 months.
The problem came out that in the past few years, due to poor homework, China was a little bit overconfident that it underestimated the complexity of Nepal and had made several mistakes, though China’s intention didn’t admit of any doubt. The biggest regret from China side was putting too much trust in the NCP, reckoning without its host, but lastly the communist government was dashed to the ground. In truth, China should expand its circle of friends, regardless of their ideology, background and size.
As Chinese leader Xi Jinping stressed this June, China needs to improve its international communication capacity to present an image of a “credible, loveable and respectable China.” In this sense, the prime part of the new dimension of Sino-Nepal ties under the new government will be closer cooperation without the interference of abstract doctrines.
China is always in Nepal’s good books because China has made great contribution to help it, not because of the political belief of the ruling CPC. Come rain or shine, China is ready to row in the same boat with Nepal because China wants to make Nepali people happy by turning the land the horn of plenty. Without demand from the other side of the Himalayans, promoting communism will go to seed.

(The author is the former chief of Xinhua News Agency Kathmandu Bureau.)