Hira Bahadur Thapa

The recent clashes between Asia’s two nuclear-armed neighbours-- China and India-- in the Himalayas symbolise the emergence of geopolitical realignment in the region. Border spats between them have been intermittent ever since the two nations fought the 1962 war. But the June 15 scuffles in the Galwan Valley proved bloodiest after their border war. Twenty Indian soldiers were killed and there were reportedly many casualties on the Chinese side, too.
Following the bloody fisticuffs, both countries have deescalated the tension in the wake of telephonic conversation between their foreign ministers. Senior military commanders have met simultaneously for preventing the escalation. However, the crisis is not averted completely as evidenced by deployment of forces and reinforcement in the area by China and India.
Border war
Analysts attribute the latest scuffle to their desire to assume regional leadership based on their rapid economic prosperity. In pursuit of economic advantages, they have enhanced bilateral trade since the 1980s. Neither China nor India appears willing to risk a border war. India is struggling with COVID-19 and China is grappling with the sharply slowing economic growth.
In fact, their border has not been delineated in a map or demarcated on the ground permanently. Border dispute remains to be settled in north-west (Ladakh) and northeast (Arunachal Pradesh) of India as both of them have been laying their own territorial claims in those areas.
The two countries’ border dispute involves about 13,500 square miles in Ladakh and Aksai Chin and about 35,000 square miles in the northeastern state of Arunachal. Historically, Chinese, Tibetans and British India representatives gathered in Simla in 1914 to negotiate a treaty that would determine the status of Tibet and effectively settle the borders between China and British India.
The Chinese balked at proposed terms that would have allowed Tibet to be autonomous and remain under Chinese control, refused to sign the deal. But Britain and Tibet signed a treaty what would be called the McMahon Line, named after British colonial official, Henry McMahon, who proposed the border. India maintains that the McMahon Line, a 550-mile frontier that extends through the Himalayas, is the official legal border with China. But China has never accepted it and hence border dispute remains unsettled.
For much of the 1800s, the Himalayas was a focus of the military and political rivalry between the three empires of Russia, Britain and China. The situation changed dramatically after British colony ended with the independence of India. The 1947 bloody war between Pakistan and India resulted in the partition of greater Kashmir of which Aksai Chin is a part, which is the bone of contention between China and India. Kashmir has been disputed by three countries; India, Pakistan, and China.
The Indo-Pak war of 1947 resulted in the partition of Kashmir into India-occupied and Pakistan-occupied territories. Ladakh is the northeastern part of Kashmir. China occupies large parts of broader Kashmir, including Aksai Chin and parts of Ladakh and sits on the Shaksgam valley ceded to Beijing by Pakistan under the 1963 agreement.
Both India and China have differing positions on this part which China calls Aksai Chin and India refers as Ladakh. Their conflicting claims over these territories led them to the 1962 war.
There is no uniformity about which country started that war. India suffered its worst defeat and was forced to retreat. The de facto border between China and India known as Line of Actual Control (LAC) was unofficially redrawn near where Chinese troops had conquered territory in the wake of the cease fire in the 1962 war.
China and India have deep economic relationship, their rivalry and competition, nonetheless. They account for 17.6 per cent of global economy. Their estimated bilateral trade stood at US$84 billion in 2017-18.
To some analysts, two factors induced the Sino-Indian brutal skirmishes. China has invested heavily in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that runs through Kashmir. This corridor is an integral part of President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is a mega project of infrastructure and trade. Therefore, China launched the offensive in order to protect that corridor. Another reason for the recent incident is India’s position on Kashmir at the UN where Pakistan tabled a proposal to censure India. The proposal was supported by China. Though the proposal did not sail through, it still fueled India’s enmity vis-à-vis China.
China has global aspirations and is moving ahead in that direction by expanding its influence in the region and beyond. China’s pursuit of peaceful rise is being viewed by some western powers suspiciously. These powers led by the US have formed alliance of like-minded countries, including Australia, Japan and India, known as Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD). This informal grouping is considered a potential counterweight to growing Chinese influence and alleged aggression in Asia Pacific.

Asymmetry of power
In this connection, The Economist writes “the border dispute is likely to accelerate India’s closeness to QUAD”. A former ambassador to China and India’s foreign secretary Nirupama Rao has said, “We are at a worrisome and extremely serious turning point in our relations with China”. She acknowledges that there is clear asymmetry of power between the two countries.
Some commentators have predicted that India is likely to deepen its relationship with the US. In their opinion, if China holds on to what it has gained, India would most certainly shift more overtly toward Washington.
De-escalation is undoubtedly in every country’s long-term interest, not least that of India and China. Nepal has appealed to both the countries to resolve their disputes peacefully. Indian ancient philosopher Chanakya’s warning, “your immediate neighbour is your natural enemy as he covets your territory and resources and is positioned to take them if he is more powerful than you” is worth recalling under the present circumstances.

(Thapa is a former foreign policy advisor to the Prime Minister.)