Hira Bahadur Thapa

Intensifying global vaccination is the safest way to contain the spread of COVID-19. However, no less important is human behaviour to follow health protocols. It plays a key role in shaping the course of coronavirus at a time of growing disparities in access to a vaccine. The divide between the haves and have-nots in receiving inoculations could not have been starker. A huge gap persists between people who have received shots in rich and poor countries. Out of three billion vaccinated people worldwide, fewer than three per cent of them in developing countries have so far been administered full vaccination.

New variant threat
In Nepal where coronavirus test positivity rate is hovering not less than 20 per cent and almost eight per cent of population only has been able to get a single vaccine dose. The situation is all but desperate. With news of more contagious and deadlier Delta variant emerging, which caused thousands of deaths in India in the recent past, our vulnerability rises. Research continues about the new strain whose spread in more than 80 countries has alarmed people. Though countries like the US and the UK have proceeded into post-pandemic life, Malaysia and Australia are implementing restrictions amid COVID-19 spikes. The short vaccine supplies and their uneven distribution among countries have aggravated the situation.
Delta variant is now the most common variant in India and Britain. The coronavirus caseload seems to be lowering in India. But this should not lure us to believe that the crisis is overcome. The government of Nepal has relaxed the COVID-19 restrictions. As more people move around and get mixed with each other, it may cause a surge in infections. The Delta variant is believed to be the most transmissible strain yet. It spreads more easily than both the original strain of the virus and the Alpha variant first identified in Britain. Public health officials believe that Delta could be 50 per cent more contagious than Alpha, though precise estimates of its infectiousness are not uniform.
Some evidences suggest that the variant may be able to partly evade the antibodies made by the human body after a coronavirus infection or vaccination. Centres for Disease Control and Prevention notes that the variant may also render certain monoclonal antibody treatments less effective. Under these circumstances valid concerns arise as to whether we need to be worried because of this new variant even if we get inoculated. Many experts still believe that it is less likely that vaccinated people will be vulnerable to new strain.
Dr. Ashish K Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, advises us not to be worried provided we are fully vaccinated. But here the efficaciousness of vaccines determines how our bodies become resistant to virus’s new variant. Studies in the Seychelles, Mongolia and Indonesia have found that some vaccines were not effective to suppress the spread of COVID-19. This makes us concerned as Nepal cannot afford to choose which vaccine to administer to her citizens. Notwithstanding this, vaccination will reduce the risks considerably. In Dr. Peter Hotez’s view, fully immunised individuals should do well with new phase of the epidemic. But he warns that unvaccinated people need to consider themselves to be at high risks. Even the single dose is better than nothing though it offers low protection.
In Nepal, the risks of infection remain high due to low rates of vaccination. Despite being aware of this, the government has eased the COVID-19 restrictions. There is compelling reason for it to reopen the business. It has no alternative to end lockdowns. A balance between life and livelihoods has to be maintained. Most existing vaccines appear to be effective against the Delta variant. Research shows that those who are infected are likely to develop mild or asymptomatic cases. Many virologists have contended whether new variants pose a unique or substantial risk is a matter of further research. However, we need to remain alert about the possible risks from the new variants. Any misunderstanding about the mutated virus is likely to create confusion and panic.
As coronavirus spread, its genome changed as expected for any virus. These mutations may affect the virus’s fitness, its ability to reproduce and spread. Some mutations weaken a virus, a situation when infections are lowered as transmissibility is compromised. Some have no measurable effect, and some make it stronger. Just because a variant displaces another does not necessarily mean it is more infectious or more virulent. Each time a new change in spike protein is identified, many experts presume the virus is more contagious and lethal. It is a fact that whether any variant is more transmissible or causes more severe illness has not been rigorously tested.

Insufficient vaccination
Changes in people’s activities contribute to the rise of infections — such as travel, failure to follow mask mandate and to adhere to physical distancing policies. A most important aspect is the status of vaccination. Insufficient vaccination always remains as an opportunity for the virus to spread, mutate and multiply. Experts believe that the coronavirus vaccines are effective in preventing severe illness, hospitalizations and deaths.
Therefore, the decision of the government of Nepal to bring sufficient doses of COVID-19 vaccine from China to immunise the citizens as quickly as possible is a welcome step. In the meantime, people should fulfill their responsibilities in following the health protocols such as covering faces, maintaining social distancing and sanitising hands because their behaviour helps prevent infection until they are fully vaccinated. The grim reality is that we are locked in a desperate race between the coronavirus’s ability to evolve and our ability to vaccinate.

(Thapa was Foreign Relations Advisor to the Prime Minister from 2008-09. thapahira17@gmail.com)