By Mahima Devkota, Kathmandu, Apr. 27: The government has made an assumption that the COVID-19 cases can rise up to 11,000 a day by this May.

According to the Ministry of Health and Population (MoHP), Nepal has yet to witness the peak of the second wave. Just today, over four thousand COVID-19 cases have been detected in the country. Of the total RT-PCR testing, positivity rate is over 30 per cent lately.

Dr. Jaleshwor Gautam, MoHP spokesperson, said, “Given positivity rate of 25-30 per cent at present, the cases will surge more till we reach the peak of the second wave.”

Similarly, if the cases continue to escalate, then Nepal will face a hospital crisis within two weeks period, voiced health experts.

According to Dr. Pradyuman Chauhan, medical officer at Hotline of the National Health Emergency Operation Center (HEOC), almost all of the hospitals are already full. 

“The COVID-19 virus has spread in the community. Partially, it is because of the irresponsible behavior of people and partially, it is because of the aggressive nature of the new variant, ‘UK variant, double mutant, and Brazil variant’,” said Dr.  Anup Bastola, Chief Consultant at the Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital (STIDH).

A 100 in every 2,000 cases needs hospitalization. So, all the supplies and manpower need to be in sufficient amount in case of hospitalization. But, all the hospitals are already occupied and with this surging, we will need more hospitalization of COVID-19 cases. The fatality rate which is now at 1.01 percent will rise to 10- 15 percent, Dr. Bastola added.

The cases are estimated to rise to 11,000 by the first of May. At this rate, many people will lose their life for a lack of treatment. Besides, the corporation and collaboration within private and governmental hospitals, there must be full support from general citizens, by adhering to health standards. Only then, we can break this chain, Dr. Bastola viewed.

The most that, ‘we’, the medical personnel, do is to give the best treatment. But, we will also be helpless if the supplies run out, said Dr. Bastola, informing that only three beds of total 20 beds of ICU are free at the STIDH. 29 beds of the ward, as well as 5 cabins, are full. There are 11 ventilators directed for COVID-19 patients and all of them are full as well.

Dr. Bastola further urged people to follow the health safety standards to break the chain of virus from the community level.

Similarly, Dr. Dinesh Kafle, Executive Director of the Teaching Hospital, said that the SARS-CoV-2 has spread in the community, because of which the cases are also rising. The, ‘UK Variant’ is more aggressive with a high volume and rate of spread. This will inflict many people with viruses and many will need hospitalization too. But, we already are facing a health crisis.

Currently, 30 beds of ICU designated for COVID-19 infection of the hospital are full, we are adding 28 more today, but we fear a lack of manpower for it. 19 seats of 20 ventilators of COVID-19 ward are occupied, 30 seats of 60 HDU (High Dependency Unit) seats are full, he added.

Treatment of COVID-19 infection in the hospital should be the ‘last resort’ as neither the manpower nor the supplies are sufficient to deal with the surging cases, said Dr. Kalfe.

 “The situation right now is terrible and is in the trend of further deterioration. We can add some more oxygen cylinders, some beds, some ventilators but we cannot solely contain the virus. For it, there should be the “community treatment,” every citizen must join hands with ‘us’ by adhering to the health safety protocols,” said Dr. Kalfe.

Many of us will test positive, but let’s not visit hospitals until faced with major severity for people with serious conditions deprived of treatment.

Similarly, Dr. Prabin Nepal, Superintendent of Police (SP) at the Armed Police Force Hospital, Balambhu, said that all the beds and ventilators of the hospital are full.

There are 140 beds in the COVID-19 ward, of them, 136 are full. All the eight ventilators are occupied by the COVID-19 patients, added Dr. Nepal.

The COVID-19 situation is growing terrible. 12-15 COVID-19 infected patients come to hospital every day. We can simply provide care, but cannot contain viruses. Even our manpower is infected. But, if, ‘we all act together and be sincere around the issue, we can win against this life-taking virus, advised Dr. Nepal.

There are a total of 76 beds in the COVID-19 ward, of them, 66 are packed. In the total 10 beds of ICU, eight beds are packed, in five ventilators, three are packed, said Dr. Achyut Raj Karki, COVID-19 focal person at Bir Hospital.  

As many as 125 beds are in the hospital, whereas, there is no ICU and ventilation in the isolation center of the National Ayurveda Research and Training Centre, A total of 125 people are in isolation.

There are a total of 17 beds, of them, eight are full. All the six beds of the ICU are full, but, some with non-COVID-19 patients. Three ventilators are free today. But, we lack manpower as well as equipment’s to deal with rising COVID-19 cases, which is ‘scary’ said Dr. Sumitra Gautam, a focal person at the Bhaktpur Hospital.

According to Dr. Krishna Paudel, director of the Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, the government is mapping oxygen ratio as well and has made an arrangement to import oxygen. 50 percent of the bed are separated for COVID-19 patients only. Some hospitals have started to add more beds at their disposal, for instance Man Mohan Memorial Hospital, Kathmandu Medical College (KMC) hospital and Kritipur Hospital so that they can provide beds to treat the COVID-19 patients.