Dr. Ramhari Poudyal

Flooding is one of the most tangible and distressing consequences of the climate crisis. It increasingly affects communities across the world. The toll on human suffering and economic costs is shocking. Over the last two decades, billions of people have been affected by floods and landslides. These disasters can lead to intergenerational poverty, migration, and geopolitical instability. In addition, it is vital that societies adapt and that governments prioritise, accelerate, and scale up their response instruments in the coming decades. Communities have long struggled to prepare for and respond to floods and landslides that can occur in the same country and at the same time.
Rainfall and storm events are becoming more extreme and deadly. However, the world’s governments fail to cope with the increasing risks due to extreme events involving too much or too little water on a warming planet. Sadly, between 2000 and 2019, 1.65 billion people were adversely affected by floods and 1.43 billion by droughts, wreaking social and economic havoc across the globe. Droughts and floods caused US$764 billion in recorded damage in the period 2000-2019. Meanwhile, storms alone caused US$1,390 billion in damage, much of it from storm-related flooding (CRED and UNDRR 2020).
Interestingly, the flood does not only create havoc such as devastating direct impacts including loss of life and property, and high indirect effects, like those associated with lost productivity and impaired public health, but at the same time, it comes with some advantages like building back damaged infrastructure after a flood can provide an economic stimulus, heavy precipitation, increased agricultural yields by covering land with fertile mud, and additional generation of electricity. One study found that a country’s gross domestic product (GDP) rises by around 1 percent after a median flood event. However, it is found that after a median drought event, GDP decreases by only 0.6 percent (Loayza 2009).

Natural Disasters In Nepal
Nepal is one of the most vulnerable countries to environmental hazards. According to the United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) 2019 report, the total economic losses caused in Nepal are 32.5 % by landslides, 21 % by floods and inundation, 12.5 % by fires, 11 % by lightning, and the rest by other disasters. Nepal has suffered an average loss of Rs. 9 billion from floods in the last three decades, Rs. 1.5 billion from landslides and Rs 900 billion from earthquakes. Regarding the Global Index of Natural Disasters, Nepal is the fourth most vulnerable country in environmental hazards. It ranks 11th in seismic risk and 13th in flood risk. In addition, Nepal is a country where 20 out of 200 glaciers are in danger of erupting at any time. This threat is likely to affect the people of Nepal and millions of people living in the lower coastal areas.

Floods and landslides
This monsoon, Nepal has been suffering from floods and landslides that have killed 25 people and destroyed roads, bridges, and energy infrastructure worth billions of rupees in the past few days amid the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. There was significant damage of Rs. 10 billion in Nepal’s recent floods in the hydropower sector alone, according to Krishna Prasad Acharya, president of Independent Power purchasers’ Association, Nepal (IPPAN). Traditionally, Nepal government has reacted to flood risk by responding without addressing the underlying causes of how natural hazards turn into human calamities.

Floods, landslides: Causes
'Asaare' Development
Let’s discuss the reasons for frequent floods and landslides, such as Asaare development, bulldozer development, poor land management. Most of the state government budget is spent in July at the end of the fiscal year. The fact that Rs. 61 billion out of Rs. 112 billion was spent in the rainy season in F.Y.2075/76. It has clarified how billions of rupees have been misused by the government in the name of Asaare development. But, unfortunately, the quality of projects on this kind of hasty work and the weak physical infrastructure that is being built are the causes of disasters, and the small impact of natural disasters is destroying people and livelihoods.
Dodger Danger
Incidents of floods/landslides have been repeated in places where dozer terror has been created by cutting down hills indiscriminately. Whether it is building a mid-hill route in Nepal or the name of rapid development and leap of prosperity, environmental assessment has been created only as a ritual (Karmakandi). Environmental Assessment Report has been prepared without proper studies and involves copy and paste from another similar project. Such an environmental assessment of the Kathmandu-Nijgadh expressway construction is currently sub-judice in the Supreme Court.
Land brokers have captured all the lands from PatiPauwa to Guthi. The rivers, their banks have all been attacked from all sides. The rivers have not entered the city; the city has entered the river. Chure and Mahabharat region are being destroyed by illegal concrete and sand dealers. Supreme Court had ordered to stop the implementation of the recent provision of article 199 of the budget. Before that, SC had also ordered to make new environmental laws to enhance biodiversity. Sadly the government hasn’t made that law yet.
During the flood, there is typically urgent response and relief measures undertaken independently by charitable agencies and government, such as temporary shelter and food. Government and international aid agencies should focus on enhancing infrastructure such as river embankments, reservoirs, weather forecasting systems, and warning systems in case of an emergency. Also, there should be subsidies for low-income families for their damaged assets and flood-ravaged landscapes.
A new and better approach to manage the growing risks is needed. Thus, it is urgently required to address the significant and growing risks associated with extreme hydro climatic events.
The five critical elements of that new framework can be represented by the mnemonic term “EPIC Response” and are described as follows:
■ Enabling environment of policies, laws, agencies, strategic plans, participation, and information.
■ Planning at multiple and nested geographical levels to ensure that mitigation measures become higher priorities.
■ Investing in healthy watersheds and water infrastructure to reduce hazards from both floods and droughts.
■ Controlling water use and floodplain development tominimize exposure and to minimize vulnerabilities.
■ Responding better to floods and droughts through more effective monitoring, response, and recovery.
Higher temperatures facilitate the atmosphere to hold more water vapour while increasing evaporation from oceans and land surfaces, resulting in higher precipitation levels. In addition, more evaporation overland will potentially increase aridity in some regions. Meanwhile, higher temperatures will melt more ice stored in mountain glaciers and polar ice caps and cause seawater to expand, resulting in rising sea levels.

Way Ahead
One of the welcome news is that Nepal Engineers Association has formed one team of experts to investigate the consequences of floods. Hopefully, this team will access a joined-up national effort to provide leadership in this crucial situation. Their outcomes should be listened to by society; it provides a framework that can help inform decisions regarding laws, institutions, strategic plans, programmes, regulations, and critical agency tasks.
While global warming and COVID-19 are posing several challenges, they also provide extraordinary opportunities. Amid record spending on initial relief works for unnecessary helicopter patrolling by powerful ministers around the flood-prone zones, they should rather focus on leveraging these investments towards research and development work by experts for the green, resilient, and robust infrastructure development that diminish rather than further exacerbate our societies’ vulnerability to climate risks. Nepal should grab these opportunities just in time.

(Poudyal is a researcher based in the United Kingdom)