The Taliban seized power in Afghanistan on Sunday after a rapid advance across the country, overwhelming government forces and sending large swaths of the population into panic. By Monday, thousands of Afghans in Kabul, the capital, had fled to the main airport. U.S. troops struggled to secure the airport for their own evacuation flights while blocking many Afghan civilians who flooded the tarmac in the hope of escaping.
In several cities, Afghan security forces put up a strong fight to stop the Taliban advance, with exchanges of gunfire. But much more prevalent during the Taliban’s offensive were the scenes of apparent retreat by government forces left ill-equipped to secure the country after the American withdrawal.

In district after district, videos showed caravans of government military vehicles driving toward borders and airports.
In one video, an escaping Afghan convoy clogged a bridge on the border with Uzbekistan, reminiscent of Soviet soldiers leaving the country decades earlier across the same bridge.
The rapid capitulation of the Afghan security forces came despite the U.S. having spent more than $83 billion in weapons, equipment and training. As districts fell, so did military air bases.
At the airport in Herat, multiple videos show that the Taliban managed to seize and operate one of the Afghan Air Force’s Soviet-era Mi-17 helicopters. It is unclear whether the insurgents knew how to fly the helicopters or were relying on pilots who switched sides.

In the days leading up to the fall of Afghanistan’s capital, the Taliban seized many well-known provincial capitals.
In Herat, Taliban insurgents driving police vehicles they captured surrounded the entrance to the citadel, the historic heart of Afghanistan’s third-largest city. And in Jalalabad- located just east of Kabul along a key route into the capital-- a Taliban convoy paraded through the city center.

The insurgents’ arrival in Kabul, like elsewhere, seemingly came without a fight.
Videos showed fighters on trucks and motorcycles fanning out through the city, sometimes to cheers and applause.
They eventually reached the presidential palace, abandoned by President Ashraf Ghani, who fled earlier in the day. An Al Jazeera correspondent accompanied fighters into the palace for a rambling live broadcast.

Rise
Taliban advances in 2021 are not very much different from the advances of 1994-1998 except that this time the advance is much faster than the earlier time. Within a span of three months, they have captured almost all major cities, barring Kabul. They were poised to take over the entire Afghanistan in next few weeks.

The group’s rise had been meteoric as it was founded in September 1994 by just 50 students under Mullah Mohammad Umar. Within few months, the strength of the group became more than 15,000. By first week of November 1994, they occupied Kandahar and by January 1995, they were controlling 12 out of 34 provinces of Afghanistan. By Mid-1996, they were controlling over 80% of Afghan territory. By 1998, this became 90% of the entire Afghanistan leaving a small part of Panjshir valley under the control of Legendary Ahmed Shah Massoud.

When Afghanistan was going through a process of de-stabilisation after the withdrawal of Soviet Troops, Pakistan needed to gain its influence over Afghanistan at any cost and these religious seminaries were an ideal opportunity.
Over next few years, these seminaries were converted into Arms and Bomb making factories and terrorist training centres with the help of Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). These madrasas provided numerous cadres of Al-Qaeda and more than 1 lakh fighters to Afghan Taliban.

They also provided terrorists and Suicide bombers for the ongoing terror activities in Afghanistan, India and the Middle East. These terror factories received massive funds from the Pakistan Government as well as Middle Eastern nations. A News report said that in 2016, Pak Govt gave Rs 300 Mn to one of the prominent Madrasa known to provide terrorists in Afghanistan. As per another report, in 2016-17, these Madrasas are managing an annual budget of over 1.5 billion US$ which does not include the provisions for Arms and Ammunition.
Forced recruitments into these seminaries was also reported which was being run with the close support of Pakistan ISI. As per a report Published in Deccan Chronicle dated 31 Jul 2017, Afghan Police caught an organised syndicate which used to traffic young boys to the Madrasas across border in Pakistan from interiors of Afghanistan. They recovered large number of Afghan Boys being taken to these terror factories in Pakistan against their own will.

Today there are over 15000 Madrasas being run on Pak- Afghan Border out of which more than 60% are in Baluchistan alone since it is the ideological hub of Taliban or Quetta Shura. Not only this, nearly all attacks or violence in Afghanistan are traced back to one or the other Madrasas in Pakistan.
As per the statement given by the Afghan Ambassador in US, Majeed Qarar, the attack on Kabul’s Intercontinental Hotel was also planned in one such Madrasa in Pakistan. He quoted the video of the father of one of the suicide attackers who visited the madrasa many times to bring their son back, but he was so badly brain-washed that he refused to come back with them.
During the Taliban attack on Maiwand Army Base of Afghanistan in 2017, the night vision goggles recovered from terrorists were made by a company in Britain and procured by Pak Army for their military operations which were later transferred to Taliban. It is a clear example that Taliban was getting arms and equipment from Pakistan ISI.

Pakistan had never denied it too unless recently. In March 2016, Pak PM’s advisor Mr Sartaj Aziz himself accepted that “These madrasas had well-oiled terror infrastructure, beyond imagination, running bomb-making factories, terrorists training centres and those to train suicide bombers - all under multi-storeyed basement under the mosque” which proves the fact that these Madrasas are really operating as terror factories.
He further mentioned that "In one mosque that I visited, I remember, in Miranshah, from outside we did not see anything. But under the mosque there were a 70-room basement, three stories, in which there were four-five IED factories, four-five suicide training centres, communication network, VIP room, conference rooms, amazing infrastructure,". Was it possible to run such well-oiled terror machinery on Pakistani Soil without the support of the government? Answer is a clear no.

Strategy for Afghanistan
After Taliban lost its ground in 2001, Pakistan had been eager to bring them back. It had two options- First is to have an interim government lead by Taliban in Afghanistan after going through a power sharing agreement and second is the complete annihilation of the current political set up and promote an all-Taliban government in Afghanistan by military force. US withdrawal from Afghanistan opened a plethora of opportunities for our western neighbour and thus it happily selected the second option. Certain unconfirmed intelligence reports suggest that all Taliban Operations are being controlled from two Command Centres of ISI located each in Chaman (Baluchistan) and Jalalabad on the Pak-Afghan border which are being manned by Brigadier rank officers of Inter Service Intelligence.

Such grand strategy paid well, and Taliban’s Blitzkrieg advances continued unabated. Friday, the 13th August 2021, proved to be unlucky again when three major cities of Afghanistan named Lashkargah, Herat and Kandahar had fallen to Taliban. As I write this article, Taliban is controlling almost 85% area of Afghanistan and almost all major cities are in their control. They are barely 7 miles from Kabul and have already started their assault on the capital city.

Government forces are undergoing forced surrenders and expensive military hardware given by United States is falling in the hands of Taliban. President Ashraf Ghani’s address on 14th August 2021 was full of disappointment and indicated his moral defeat against Taliban. At the same time leaders of Afghan government have started fleeing to other countries and there is a state of total chaos. Fall of Kabul is inevitable, and it is only a matter of time that these terrorists control the power centre of Afghanistan

Future Of Conflict
United States’ decision for a sudden and unplanned withdrawal from the Afghanistan has paid a large cost. They remained in delusion that Taliban will peacefully participate in a power sharing system, but it backfired. Ideally, Uncle Sam could have kept a small force backed by Air Force to keep Taliban in check, but it not only initiated a hasty withdrawal but also forced current Afghan Govt to release more than 5000 Taliban prisoners as part of the peace deal.

These Taliban commanders are now fighting their way to Kabul. It is highly unlikely that Taliban will establish a people’s government in Afghanistan. They were the proxies of Pakistan and will remain the same. We have seen their regime from 1996 to 2001 and things will not be different this time too.
While all the developmental projects started in the war-torn country will now go back to square one, fanatic Islamic rule of Taliban will be a threat to the humanity too. There are very high chances that groups like Al-Qaeda and Islamic State will revive itself under Taliban leadership. Situation in Indian Kashmir will also not be different, and we may see an influx of foreign fighters in the valley in the coming times.
The blitzkrieg advances of Taliban in Afghanistan raised another serious question as to how a strong and trained force of over 3,00,000 Soldiers which is backed by Artillery, Tanks, Rockets & an Air Force collapse like a pack of cards from a bunch of Madrasa trained terrorists who are less than half in number and are not so equipped?

The way Afghan Forces not only surrendered to Taliban without firing a single bullet & handed over their entire military infrastructure to them but also betrayed several senior militia commanders and handed them over to Taliban raised serious suspicion. Who is behind all this?
Was there a secret deal for which Afghan Government was not taken into the confidence?
Did US promise the country to Taliban in return of a safe withdrawal?
Has Pakistan played its cards well to topple the government in Afghanistan?
There are serious questions which needs an answer. However as of now we can only wait and watch. Let us see the colour of water in Kabul River which has started turning red now.

Who Are Taliban ? 

Who were these Taliban fighters who turned the tables in no time? These fighters were Afghan refugees primarily from Madrasas of Pakistan. As a result of the Afghan-Soviet War, a large number of Afghan refugees moved into the areas across Durand Line and took shelter. Various Islamic sects of Pakistan including Jamaat-e-Islami took this opportunity to establish their religious schools in these areas.
The Taliban refers to students' or 'seekers'), which refers to itself as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) is a Deobandi Islamist movement and military organisation in Afghanistan, waging war (an insurgency, or jihad) within the country.
Since 2016, the Taliban's leader has been Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada. In 2017, the Taliban was estimated to have 200,000 troops.
From 1996 to 2001, the Taliban held power over roughly three-quarters of Afghanistan, and enforced a strict interpretation of Sharia, or Islamic law. The Taliban emerged in 1994 as one of the prominent factions in the Afghan Civil War and largely consisted of students (talib) from the Pashtun areas of eastern and southern Afghanistan who had been educated in traditional Islamic schools, and fought during the Soviet–Afghan War.
Under the leadership of Mohammed Omar, the movement spread throughout most of Afghanistan, shifting power away from the Mujahideen warlords. The totalitarian , Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan was established in 1996 and the Afghan capital was transferred to Kandahar. It held control of most of the country until being overthrown after the American-led invasion of Afghanistan in December 2001 following the September 11 attacks.
At its peak, formal diplomatic recognition of the Taliban's government was acknowledged by only three nations: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The group later regrouped as an insurgency movement to fight the American-backed Karzai administration and the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in the War in Afghanistan.
The Taliban have been condemned internationally for the harsh enforcement of their interpretation of Islamic Sharia law, which has resulted in the brutal treatment of many Afghans. During their rule from 1996 to 2001, the Taliban and their allies committed massacres against Afghan civilians, denied UN food supplies to 160,000 starving civilians, and conducted a policy of scorched earth, burning vast areas of fertile land and destroying tens of thousands of homes. While the Taliban controlled Afghanistan, they banned activities and media including paintings, photography, and movies that depicted people or other living things. They also prohibited music using instruments, with the exception of the daf, a type of frame drum. The Taliban prevented girls and young women from attending school, banned women from working jobs outside of healthcare (male doctors were prohibited from treating women), and required that women be accompanied by a male relative and wear a burqa at all times when in public. 
If women broke certain rules, they were publicly whipped or executed. Religious and ethnic minorities were heavily discriminated against during Taliban rule. According to the United Nations, the Taliban and their allies were responsible for 76% of Afghan civilian casualties in 2010, and 80% in 2011 and 2012. The Taliban also engaged in cultural genocide, destroying numerous monuments including the famous 1500-year-old Buddhas of Bamiyan.
The Taliban's ideology has been described as combining an "innovative" form of sharia Islamic law based on Deobandi fundamentalism and militant Islamism, combinedwith Pashtun social and cultural norms known as Pashtunwali, as most Taliban are Pashtun tribesmen.
The Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence and military are widely alleged by the international community and the Afghan government to have provided support to the Taliban during their founding and time in power, and of continuing to support the Taliban during the insurgency. Pakistan states that it dropped all support for the group after the 11 September attacks. In 2001, reportedly 2,500 Arabs under command of Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden fought for the Taliban.
Following the Fall of Kabul on 15 August 2021, the Taliban regained effective control of the governance of Afghanistan
A primary focus in the Taliban's media message is the history of wars between Christians and Muslims. The Taliban emphasize spiritual and cultural differences between the West and the East, the idea of the clash of civilizations, denounces the West as oppressive against Islam, call the War on Terror a War against Islam, and condemn the international forces as "occupiers and invaders." They portray the government of Afghanistan as its puppet, and the reconstruction works as "efforts of Christianizing Afghanistan," by using civilian casualties of air strikes and using media reports of prisoners' abuses and mistreatment in their favour. The Taliban have said they aim to restore peace and security to Afghanistan, including Western troops leaving, and to enforce their own version of Sharia, or Islamic law, once in power.

(NYT/ The Economic Times/ Wikipedia)