By A Staff Reporter
Kathmandu, June 10: The global economy is expected to expand 5.6 per cent in 2021, the fastest post-recession pace in 80 years, largely on strong rebounds from a few major economies.
However, many emerging markets and developing economies continue to struggle with the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath, the World Bank said in its June 2021 Global Economic Prospects. Despite the recovery, global output will be about 2 per cent below pre-pandemic projections by the end of this year.
Per capita income losses will not be unwound by 2022 for about two-thirds of emerging markets and developing economies, it said. Among low-income economies, where vaccination has lagged, the effects of the pandemic have reversed poverty reduction gains and aggravated insecurity and other long-standing challenges.
“While there are welcome signs of global recovery, the pandemic continues to inflict poverty and inequality on people in developing countries around the world,” said World Bank Group President David Malpass. “Globally coordinated efforts are essential to accelerate vaccine distribution and debt relief, particularly for low-income countries. As the health crisis eases, policymakers will need to address the pandemic’s lasting effects and take steps to spur green, resilient, and inclusive growth while safeguarding macroeconomic stability.”
Among major economies, U.S. growth is projected to reach 6.8 per cent this year, reflecting large-scale fiscal support and the easing of pandemic restrictions.
Growth in other advanced economies is also firming, but to a lesser extent. Among emerging markets and developing economies, China is anticipated to rebound to 8.5 per cent this year, reflecting the release of pent-up demand.
Emerging markets and developing economies as a group are forecast to expand 6 per cent this year, supported by higher demand and elevated commodity prices.
However, the recovery in many countries is being held back by a resurgence of COVID-19 cases and lagging vaccination progress, as well as the withdrawal of policy support in some instances.
Excluding China, the rebound in this group of countries is anticipated to be a more modest 4.4 per cent. The recovery among emerging markets and developing economies is forecast to moderate to 4.7 per cent in 2022.
Even so, gains in this group of economies are not sufficient to recoup losses experienced during the 2020 recession, and output in 2022 is expected to be 4.1 per cent below pre-pandemic projections.
Per capita income in many emerging markets and developing economies is also expected to remain below pre-pandemic levels, and losses are anticipated to worsen deprivations associated with health, education and living standards.
Major drivers of growth had been expected to lose momentum even before the COVID-19 crisis, and the trend is likely to be amplified by the scarring effects of the pandemic.
Growth in low-income economies this year is anticipated to be the slowest in the past 20 years other than 2020, partly reflecting the very slow pace of vaccination.
Low-income economies are forecast to expand by 2.9 per cent in 2021 before picking up to 4.7 per cent in 2022. The group’s output level in 2022 is projected to be 4.9 per cent lower than pre-pandemic projections.
“Linkages through trade and global value chains have been a vital engine of economic advancement for developing economies and lifted many people out of poverty. However, at current trends, global trade growth is set to slow down over the next decade,” World Bank Group Vice President for Equitable Growth and Financial Institutions Indermit Gill said. “As developing economies recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, cutting trade costs can create an environment conducive to re-engaging in global supply chains and reigniting trade growth.”
“Higher global inflation may complicate the policy choices of emerging markets and developing economies in coming months as some of these economies still rely on expansionary support measures to ensure a durable recovery,” World Bank Prospects Group Director Ayhan Kose said. “Unless risks from record-high debt are addressed, these economies remain vulnerable to financial market stress should investor risk sentiment deteriorate as a result of inflation pressures in advanced economies.”
Rising food prices and accelerating aggregate inflation may also compound challenges associated with food insecurity in low-income countries.